Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jasmine Paolini v Sorana Cirstea

2026-09-04 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (14 en el análisis )

40%

60%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jasmine Paolini (Local)

Predicción 39.59%2.53momio equitativo

EV +0.947%

Ventaja +0.371%

Kelly +0.611%

Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

37.19%39.38%39.75%40.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.202.432.402.5545.45%41.19%41.67%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sorana Cirstea (Visitante)

Predicción 60.41%1.66momio equitativo

EV -3.34%

Ventaja -2.09%

Kelly -5.57%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

59.46%60.62%60.25%62.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.501.541.551.6066.67%64.90%64.52%62.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jasmine Paolini (Local): 39.59%; Sorana Cirstea (Visitante): 60.41%. Para Jasmine Paolini (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.53. 15 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.55, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.947%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -7.57%E -4.95%K -14.28%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-02 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -8.17%E -5.38%K -15.72%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-02 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -8.17%E -5.38%K -15.72%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-02 18:55
Unibet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -8.17%E -5.38%K -15.72%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-02 18:55
BetRivers🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
TABtouch🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Casumo🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Grosvenor🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
betPARX🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Bally Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Coolbet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.03%E -0.413%K -0.688%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.94%E -2.48%K -6.68%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-02 19:09
Betway🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -1.03%E -0.413%K -0.688%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-02 19:05
PMU (FR)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.03%E -0.413%K -0.688%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-02 18:55
1xBet🎯	2.49I 40.16%NM 38.52%EV -1.43%E -0.574%K -0.959%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.48%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-02 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.50%EV -2.62%E -1.06%K -1.79%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.50%EV -6.96%E -4.52%K -12.90%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-02 19:35
Bovada🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.01%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-02 19:09
SportsBet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.01%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-02 17:55
Bet Right🎯	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.20%E -1.74%K -2.96%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 19:10
Fanatics🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-02 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-02 19:35
Betr (AU)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 19:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 19:00
PlayUp🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 22:05
Fliff🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.57%E -4.95%K -14.28%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-02 20:55
betfred_uk🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 19:10
DraftKings🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 19:00
888sport🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 20:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-02 17:59
GTbets🎯	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -6.57%E -2.79%K -4.83%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.34%E -2.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-02 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.34%E -2.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-02 19:35
Neds🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.34%E -2.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-02 19:35
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 20:45
BetMGM🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 19:35
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-02 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-02 17:55
TAB🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-02 22:04
Coral🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-02 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-02 19:35
LeoVegas🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.57%E -4.95%K -14.28%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-02 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 40.11%EV -10.14%E -4.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 59.89%EV -8.17%E -5.38%K -15.72%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-09-02 17:55
ReBet🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 39.95%EV -10.14%E -4.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 60.05%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-09-02 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.93%E -4.86%K -8.74%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-09-02 18:01
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.91%E -5.87%K -10.76%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%	12.1%	2026-09-02 19:35

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Kalshi◎	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%	1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%	3.1%	2026-09-02 22:55
Novig◎	2.27I 44.05%NM 39.47%	1.48I 67.57%NM 60.53%	11.6%	2026-09-02 19:05
Smarkets◎	2.22I 45.05%NM 40.16%	1.49I 67.11%NM 59.84%	12.2%	2026-09-02 17:55
Matchbook◎	1.96I 51.02%NM 41.14%	1.37I 72.99%NM 58.86%	24.0%	2026-09-02 21:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 50.00%	1.22I 81.97%NM 50.00%	63.9%	2026-09-02 23:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 50.00%	1.22I 81.97%NM 50.00%	63.9%	2026-09-02 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 50.00%	1.22I 81.97%NM 50.00%	63.9%	2026-09-02 23:00