Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Polina Iatcenko
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 93.37%1.07fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -72.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.44%93.38%93.57%95.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.021.04100.00%97.98%98.04%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Polina Iatcenko (Visit)
Prediction 6.63%15.09fair odd
EV +32.54%
Edge +1.63%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.557%
assuming max odds 20.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.81%6.62%6.43%8.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0015.2215.0020.009.09%6.57%6.67%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 93.37%; Polina Iatcenko (Visit): 6.63%. For Polina Iatcenko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.09. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +32.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +32.54%E +1.63%K +1.71%G +0.557% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +32.54%E +1.63%K +1.71%G +0.557% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.98%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 19.50I 5.13%NM 5.02%EV +29.23%E +1.50%K +1.58%G +0.462% | 2.2% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +19.29%E +1.07%K +1.13%G +0.219% | 4.6% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.0% | 2026-09-02 05:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.0% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.0% | 2026-09-01 18:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 11:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 05:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.66%E +0.745%K +0.791%G +0.100% | 3.9% | 2026-09-02 11:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 94.32%EV -6.63%E -6.63%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 16.60I 6.02%NM 5.68%EV +10.01%E +0.603%K +0.642%G +0.064% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 20:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.18%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.82%EV +9.35%E +0.567%K +0.603%G +0.056% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 10:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.18%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.82%EV +9.35%E +0.567%K +0.603%G +0.056% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 10:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +6.03%E +0.377%K +0.402%G +0.024% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 22:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +6.03%E +0.377%K +0.402%G +0.024% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +6.03%E +0.377%K +0.402%G +0.024% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 10:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 22:53 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-01 09:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-01 09:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 15:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 05:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 22:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 13:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 05:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-02 13:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -0.592%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.55%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 14.80I 6.76%NM 6.45%EV -1.92%E -0.130%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.37%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV -3.91%E -0.269%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -5.56%E -0.390%K -0.420%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 22:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -7.22%E -0.516%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 05:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -7.22%E -0.516%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 12:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -13.85%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 22:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -13.85%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 22:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -13.85%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -13.85%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -13.85%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 10:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.69%E -5.64%K -569.34%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -13.85%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -17.16%E -1.37%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 22:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -2.89%E -2.78%K -72.31%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -20.47%E -1.71%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 22:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -20.47%E -1.71%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 21:11 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.47%E -1.71%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.76%E -4.67%K -237.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -20.47%E -1.71%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 05:32 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -23.79%E -2.07%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.83%E -3.71%K -127.53%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -27.10%E -2.46%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 08:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.88% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 3.12% | 0.2% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.42% | 27.78I 3.60%NM 3.58% | 0.7% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96% | 1.1% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.88% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 4.12% | 1.3% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.71% | 30.03I 3.33%NM 3.29% | 1.4% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |