Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula

2026-09-10 23:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Prediction 61.27%1.63fair odd

EV -0.740%

Edge -0.457%

Kelly -1.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.14%61.18%61.40%62.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.481.551.541.6267.57%64.65%64.94%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jessica Pegula (Visit)

Prediction 38.73%2.58fair odd

EV +1.47%

Edge +0.561%

Kelly +0.907%

Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.17%38.82%38.60%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.452.452.6244.44%40.86%40.82%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 61.27%; Jessica Pegula (Visit): 38.73%. For Jessica Pegula (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.62, producing a positive expected value of +1.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 62.83%EV -5.03%E -3.24%K -9.14%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.17%EV +1.47%E +0.561%K +0.907%G +0.013%	2.7%	2026-09-09 05:40
Coolbet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -3.80%E -2.42%K -6.67%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -1.24%E -0.487%K -0.801%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-09 06:45
1xBet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.24%E -0.487%K -0.801%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-09 06:50
Marathon Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.68%EV -2.02%E -0.797%K -1.32%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:45
Bovada🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.42%E -2.83%K -7.89%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-09 05:31
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.03%E -3.24%K -9.14%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-09 05:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
TABtouch🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Virgin Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
BetRivers🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Casumo🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Grosvenor🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Unibet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Svenska Spel🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
ATG (SE)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
betPARX🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Bally Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-09 06:45
betfred_uk🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-09 06:24
888sport🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-09 05:30
William Hill🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-09 05:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-09 05:29
888sport (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.18%E -1.27%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-09 05:30
DraftKings🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -5.03%E -3.24%K -9.14%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-09 05:30
Bet Right🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-09 06:44
PMU (FR)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -7.48%E -4.95%K -14.67%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -3.95%E -1.59%K -2.67%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-09 06:44
Betr (AU)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-09 06:44
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-09 06:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-09 06:45
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-09 06:44
BetMGM🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-09 05:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-09 06:44
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-09 06:54
PlayUp🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -6.87%E -4.52%K -13.21%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.12%E -2.09%K -3.53%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-09-09 05:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -2.58%E -1.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -5.50%E -2.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-09 05:29
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -2.58%E -1.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -5.50%E -2.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-09 05:30
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -5.89%E -2.42%K -4.12%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-09 06:50
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -5.89%E -2.42%K -4.12%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-09 06:48
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -6.28%E -2.59%K -4.42%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-09 06:45
Betsson🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -6.28%E -2.59%K -4.42%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-09 06:44
NordicBet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -6.28%E -2.59%K -4.42%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-09 06:44
betano_uk🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.80%E -2.42%K -6.67%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-09 06:48
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.80%E -2.42%K -6.67%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-09 05:29
Neds🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.80%E -2.42%K -6.67%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-09 05:30
Fanatics🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.42%E -2.83%K -7.89%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-09 06:49
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.03%E -3.24%K -9.14%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-09 05:29
Fliff🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.64%E -3.66%K -10.45%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-09-09 06:50
Coral🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-09 05:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-09 05:30
LeoVegas🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.09%E -5.40%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.04%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-09 06:49
Sky Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -0.740%E -0.457%K -1.19%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -7.83%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-09 04:14
BoyleSports🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -0.740%E -0.457%K -1.19%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -7.83%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-09-09 03:24
SportsBet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.25%E -4.09%K -11.80%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.83%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-09-09 04:14
FanDuel🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -1.35%E -0.840%K -2.22%G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -8.60%E -3.64%K -6.32%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-09 04:14
Caesars🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.42%E -2.83%K -7.89%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.99%E -3.82%K -6.66%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-09 06:54
GTbets🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -1.35%E -0.840%K -2.22%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -10.15%E -4.37%K -7.69%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-09 03:04
ReBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.63%EV -8.09%E -5.40%K -16.19%G +0.000%	2.31I 43.29%NM 39.37%EV -10.54%E -4.56%K -8.04%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-09-09 06:49
Paddy Power🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.80%E -2.42%K -6.67%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -10.92%E -4.75%K -8.40%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-09-09 04:13
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -0.740%E -0.457%K -1.19%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -12.86%E -5.72%K -10.29%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-09 04:15
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -9.32%E -6.30%K -19.41%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -12.86%E -5.72%K -10.29%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-09-09 06:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%	1.1%	2026-09-09 06:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%	1.5%	2026-09-09 06:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%	1.5%	2026-09-09 06:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.38%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.62%	1.5%	2026-09-09 06:49
ProphetX◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%	2.1%	2026-09-09 06:25
Smarkets◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%	2.6%	2026-09-09 07:15
Novig◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%	4.0%	2026-09-09 06:25

Arbitrage (3 combinations) +0.10%Sky Bet 1.62 (61.8%) / Pinnacle 2.62 (38.2%)Show all 3 combinations

Sky Bet🎯 Pinnacle🎯 Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 BoyleSports🎯

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)	Jessica Pegula (Visit)	Margin
Sky Bet🎯 1.62 (61.8%)	Pinnacle🎯 2.62 (38.2%)	+0.104%
BoyleSports🎯 1.62 (61.8%)	Pinnacle🎯 2.62 (38.2%)	+0.104%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 1.62 (61.8%)	Pinnacle🎯 2.62 (38.2%)	+0.104%