Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 62.08%1.61fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.811%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.10%62.03%62.03%63.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.541.531.5967.57%65.07%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jessica Pegula (Visit)
Prediction 37.92%2.64fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.544%
Kelly -0.884%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.89%37.97%37.97%39.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.472.482.6042.55%40.42%40.32%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 62.08%; Jessica Pegula (Visit): 37.92%. For Aryna Sabalenka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.59, with an expected value of -1.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -1.29%E -0.811%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -1.91%E -1.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -1.91%E -1.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -1.91%E -1.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.61%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.41%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.59%EV -1.79%E -0.693%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-09-09 07:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.15%E -2.02%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -10.89%E -4.64%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.77%E -2.43%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.77%E -2.43%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-09 05:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -3.77%E -2.43%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -5.96%E -2.41%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-09 05:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%EV -4.39%E -2.85%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%EV -2.93%E -1.15%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-09 10:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%EV -4.39%E -2.85%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%EV -2.93%E -1.15%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-09 10:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.39%E -2.85%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.31%E -1.30%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.39%E -2.85%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.31%E -1.30%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 07:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.39%E -2.85%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.31%E -1.30%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 16:51 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -4.39%E -2.85%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -4.45%E -1.77%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -3.69%E -1.45%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-09 14:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.68%EV -4.07%E -1.61%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 06:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 12:46 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 08:43 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 08:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 09:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 17:16 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 10:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 05:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 05:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 05:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 05:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 07:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 12:46 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 14:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 14:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 09:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 13:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 13:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 17:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 13:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 15:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.96%E -2.41%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 07:54 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.96%E -2.41%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 08:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -6.34%E -2.57%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 07:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -6.34%E -2.57%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-09 07:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-09 09:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.26%E -4.14%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 08:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -6.26%E -4.14%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 09:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -6.26%E -4.14%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 16:46 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.88%E -4.58%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.31%E -1.30%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-09 07:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.88%E -4.58%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 07:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.88%E -4.58%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 14:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.88%E -4.58%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 14:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.00%EV -8.12%E -5.48%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.00%EV -4.45%E -1.77%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 17:21 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.46%EV -8.12%E -5.48%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 38.54%EV -10.51%E -4.46%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 07:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 17:26 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59% | 0.8% | 2026-09-09 14:46 |
| Novig◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.97% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 37.03% | 1.1% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99% | 2.4% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |