Language:English
Karolina Muchova v Elise Mertens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Karolina Muchova (Local)
Prediction 66.05%1.51fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -3.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.04%66.11%65.95%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.4973.53%69.60%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elise Mertens (Visit)
Prediction 33.95%2.95fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.620%
Kelly +0.930%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%33.89%34.05%35.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.753.0038.46%36.31%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karolina Muchova (Local): 66.05%; Elise Mertens (Visit): 33.95%. For Elise Mertens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +1.86%E +0.620%K +0.930%G +0.017% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +1.86%E +0.620%K +0.930%G +0.017% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +1.86%E +0.620%K +0.930%G +0.017% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 10:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -10.18%E -7.48%K -28.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +1.86%E +0.620%K +0.930%G +0.017% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.89%E -3.40%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.53%E -0.529%K -0.808%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.21%E -4.38%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.53%E -0.529%K -0.808%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.21%E -0.769%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%EV -2.25%E -1.52%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%EV -2.89%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.29%EV -8.20%E -5.90%K -21.01%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.71%EV -2.89%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.55%E -3.88%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.23%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 10:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.55%E -3.88%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.23%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.55%E -3.88%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.23%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 10:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.23%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -10.18%E -7.48%K -28.27%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -3.23%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-16 10:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.55%E -3.88%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.93%E -1.76%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.55%E -3.88%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.93%E -1.76%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.21%E -4.38%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.93%E -1.76%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -6.87%E -4.88%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -4.93%E -1.76%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -4.23%E -2.92%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -5.61%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -4.89%E -3.40%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.61%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -1.59%E -1.07%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -5.95%E -2.15%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -1.59%E -1.07%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -5.95%E -2.15%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.23%E -2.92%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.89%E -3.40%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.55%E -3.88%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.21%E -4.38%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 10:28 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 10:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -10.18%E -7.48%K -28.27%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -6.63%E -2.41%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 10:33 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -1.59%E -1.07%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-16 10:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.25%E -1.52%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 10:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.91%E -1.98%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.23%E -2.92%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.23%E -2.92%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.21%E -4.38%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.21%E -4.38%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.54%E -5.38%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.33%E -3.08%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 10:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -4.23%E -2.92%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -10.70%E -4.07%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -4.23%E -2.92%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -10.70%E -4.07%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -5.55%E -3.88%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -10.70%E -4.07%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.89%E -3.40%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -11.04%E -4.21%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.89%E -3.40%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -11.04%E -4.21%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -3.57%E -2.45%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -11.72%E -4.51%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.89%E -3.40%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -11.72%E -4.51%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-16 10:28 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.89%E -3.40%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -11.72%E -4.51%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.89%E -3.40%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -11.72%E -4.51%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.8% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.71% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.29% | 2.6% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92% | 2.7% | 2026-04-16 10:35 |