L’École des cotes

Simona Waltert v Ajla Tomljanovic

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-17 18:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Simona Waltert (Local)

Prévision 27.29%3.66cote équitable
EV +15.99%
Avantage +3.76%
Kelly +4.92%
Croissance +0.786%

avec la cote maximale 4.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.30%27.07%27.44%30.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.403.354.2532.26%29.39%29.85%23.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Ajla Tomljanovic (Visiteur)

Prévision 72.71%1.38cote équitable
EV -1.12%
Avantage -0.821%
Kelly -3.10%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
69.98%72.93%72.56%77.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.221.301.301.3681.97%76.76%76.92%73.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Betway4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +15.99%E +3.76%K +4.92%G +0.786%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -11.30%E -9.26%K -51.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-17 17:15
Bovada3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +6.44%E +1.65%K +2.22%G +0.143%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -7.66%E -6.03%K -28.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-17 17:15
theScore Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +2.34%E +0.625%K +0.852%G +0.020%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -9.11%E -7.29%K -36.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-17 17:15
Winamax (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -0.387%E -0.106%K -0.146%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -9.11%E -7.29%K -36.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-17 17:15
Fanatics3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -0.387%E -0.106%K -0.146%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -9.84%E -7.94%K -41.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-17 17:15
DraftKings3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -1.21%E -0.333%K -0.460%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -6.21%E -4.81%K -21.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 17:15
Coolbet3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -1.75%E -0.487%K -0.674%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.21%E -4.81%K -21.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 17:15
TAB3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -1.75%E -0.487%K -0.674%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -8.39%E -6.66%K -32.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 17:15
Ladbrokes (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -1.75%E -0.487%K -0.674%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.11%E -7.29%K -36.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 17:15
Pinnacle3.53I 28.33%NM 27.52%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.48%EV -2.57%E -1.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-17 17:05
Hard Rock Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.75%E -3.63%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-17 17:15
Bet Victor3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.21%E -4.81%K -21.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-17 17:15
PointsBet (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.66%E -6.03%K -28.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-17 17:15
Winamax (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.66%E -6.03%K -28.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-17 17:15
Casumo3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.85%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.02%E -3.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-17 17:15
Unibet (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.85%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.02%E -3.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-17 17:15
betPARX3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.85%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.02%E -3.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-17 17:15
NordicBet3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.85%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-17 17:15
Betsson3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.85%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-17 17:15
Fliff3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -5.85%E -1.69%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -9.11%E -7.29%K -36.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-17 17:15
Coral3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-17 17:05
BoyleSports3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.21%E -4.81%K -21.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 17:15
PMU (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.21%E -4.81%K -21.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.21%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -8.39%E -6.66%K -32.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-17 17:15
1xBet3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -7.76%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.31%EV -1.12%E -0.821%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-17 16:59
Unibet (FR)3.38I 29.59%NM 28.24%EV -7.76%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.76%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-17 17:01
BetOnline.ag3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -8.03%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -2.57%E -1.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 17:05
LowVig.ag3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -8.03%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -2.57%E -1.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-17 17:05
Unibet (UK)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 16:54
ReBet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 16:54
Unibet (NL)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.02%E -3.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 17:15
Unibet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.02%E -3.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 17:15
ATG (SE)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.02%E -3.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 17:15
Svenska Spel3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.02%E -3.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 17:15
BetUS3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.75%E -3.63%K -15.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 17:05
BetRivers3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-17 17:15
Grosvenor3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.57%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-17 17:15
SportsBet3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -9.39%E -2.83%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-17 17:10
GTbets3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -2.57%E -1.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-17 17:05
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-17 17:05
Marathon Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-17 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 17:05
Neds3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 17:05
LeoVegas3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.94%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -6.21%E -4.81%K -21.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 17:15
Bet Right3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.57%E -1.92%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 17:06
888sport3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 17:10
PlayUp3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 17:05
Betr (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 17:06
888sport (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 17:15
Mr Green (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-17 17:15
TABtouch3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -4.02%E -3.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-17 17:15
Parions Sport (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.63%K -15.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 16:55
Virgin Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 17:15
LiveScore Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 17:15
Bally Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-17 17:15
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.21%E -4.81%K -21.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-17 17:15
NetBet (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -11.30%E -3.48%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.06%EV -8.39%E -6.66%K -32.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-17 17:00
Everygame3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -12.67%E -3.96%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.48%E -4.21%K -18.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 16:59
Caesars3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -15.40%E -4.97%K -7.33%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.30%E -2.48%K -9.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-17 17:13
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%0.7%2026-03-17 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%0.7%2026-03-17 17:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%1.2%2026-03-17 17:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%2.9%2026-03-17 17:15
Novig3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%2.9%2026-03-17 17:15
Matchbook3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%4.7%2026-03-17 17:15
ProphetX3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%4.7%2026-03-17 17:15