Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Barbora Krejcikova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 84.73%1.18fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -17.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.30%85.42%83.92%92.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.091.101.1598.04%91.52%90.91%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Barbora Krejcikova (Visit)
Prediction 15.27%6.55fair odd
EV +83.29%
Edge +6.94%
Kelly +7.57%
Growth +6.31%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.90%14.58%16.08%18.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.007.256.0012.0020.00%13.79%16.67%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 84.73%; Barbora Krejcikova (Visit): 15.27%. For Barbora Krejcikova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.55. 27 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +83.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -12.73%E -12.36%K -424.40%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +83.29%E +6.94%K +7.57%G +6.31% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 19:06 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.58%EV -9.34%E -8.73%K -133.47%G +0.000% | 11.64I 8.59%NM 8.42%EV +77.79%E +6.68%K +7.31%G +5.69% | 2.0% | 2026-05-07 19:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -11.88%E -11.43%K -297.12%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +75.65%E +6.58%K +7.20%G +5.45% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +68.01%E +6.18%K +6.80%G +4.63% | 4.3% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -13.58%E -13.31%K -678.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +68.01%E +6.18%K +6.80%G +4.63% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.65%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000% | 10.28I 9.73%NM 9.35%EV +57.01%E +5.55%K +6.14%G +3.50% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.65%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000% | 10.28I 9.73%NM 9.35%EV +57.01%E +5.55%K +6.14%G +3.50% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 19:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +52.74%E +5.27%K +5.86%G +3.09% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -11.88%E -11.43%K -297.12%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +52.74%E +5.27%K +5.86%G +3.09% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 19:08 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.32%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.68%EV +49.68%E +5.07%K +5.65%G +2.80% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.22%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000% | 9.78I 10.22%NM 9.78%EV +49.38%E +5.05%K +5.62%G +2.78% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -12.73%E -12.36%K -424.40%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV +48.92%E +5.02%K +5.59%G +2.73% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -12.73%E -12.36%K -424.40%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV +48.92%E +5.02%K +5.59%G +2.73% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +45.10%E +4.75%K +5.31%G +2.39% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 18:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV +41.28%E +4.46%K +5.00%G +2.07% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.25%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.75%EV +34.41%E +3.91%K +4.41%G +1.52% | 5.7% | 2026-05-07 18:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -11.88%E -11.43%K -297.12%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +29.83%E +3.51%K +3.98%G +1.19% | 7.9% | 2026-05-07 18:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.39%EV -7.65%E -7.02%K -84.98%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.61%EV +26.77%E +3.23%K +3.67%G +0.982% | 3.8% | 2026-05-07 19:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +22.19%E +2.77%K +3.17%G +0.703% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 18:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -11.88%E -11.43%K -297.12%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV +22.19%E +2.77%K +3.17%G +0.703% | 8.7% | 2026-05-07 19:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +14.55%E +1.94%K +2.24%G +0.326% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +14.55%E +1.94%K +2.24%G +0.326% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.80%E -6.18%K -68.01%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -0.721%E -0.111%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.80%E -6.18%K -68.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -7.65%E -7.02%K -84.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -3.41%E -2.99%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -11.41%E -1.97%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.41%E -2.99%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -12.18%E -2.12%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -12.18%E -2.12%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -12.94%E -2.27%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -12.94%E -2.27%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -17.52%E -3.24%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 82.81%EV -7.65%E -7.02%K -84.98%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -19.81%E -3.77%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.54%EV -6.80%E -6.18%K -68.01%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -20.58%E -3.96%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -2.56%E -2.23%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -23.63%E -4.73%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -3.41%E -2.99%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -23.63%E -4.73%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.98% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.5% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.00% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.00% | 2.0% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 88.17% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.83% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 88.17% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.83% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.86% | 6.62I 15.11%NM 14.14% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 19:15 |