L’École des cotes

Aryna Sabalenka v Barbora Krejcikova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-07 19:17 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Prévision 84.73%1.18cote équitable
EV -2.56%
Avantage -2.23%
Kelly -17.10%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
81.30%85.42%83.92%92.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.021.091.101.1598.04%91.52%90.91%86.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Barbora Krejcikova (Visiteur)

Prévision 15.27%6.55cote équitable
EV +83.29%
Avantage +6.94%
Kelly +7.57%
Croissance +6.31%

avec la cote maximale 12.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.90%14.58%16.08%18.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.007.256.0012.0020.00%13.79%16.67%8.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
William Hill1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -12.73%E -12.36%K -424.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +83.29%E +6.94%K +7.57%G +6.31%5.4%2026-05-07 19:06
Pinnacle1.07I 93.46%NM 91.58%EV -9.34%E -8.73%K -133.47%G +0.000%11.64I 8.59%NM 8.42%EV +77.79%E +6.68%K +7.31%G +5.69%2.0%2026-05-07 19:05
SportsBet1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -11.88%E -11.43%K -297.12%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +75.65%E +6.58%K +7.20%G +5.45%4.8%2026-05-07 18:55
1xBet1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +68.01%E +6.18%K +6.80%G +4.63%4.3%2026-05-07 18:55
NetBet (FR)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -13.58%E -13.31%K -678.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +68.01%E +6.18%K +6.80%G +4.63%7.1%2026-05-07 18:55
LowVig.ag1.06I 94.34%NM 90.65%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000%10.28I 9.73%NM 9.35%EV +57.01%E +5.55%K +6.14%G +3.50%4.1%2026-05-07 18:55
BetOnline.ag1.06I 94.34%NM 90.65%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000%10.28I 9.73%NM 9.35%EV +57.01%E +5.55%K +6.14%G +3.50%4.1%2026-05-07 19:00
Bet Right1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +52.74%E +5.27%K +5.86%G +3.09%5.2%2026-05-07 18:55
PlayUp1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -11.88%E -11.43%K -297.12%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +52.74%E +5.27%K +5.86%G +3.09%6.2%2026-05-07 19:08
ReBet1.05I 95.24%NM 90.32%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.68%EV +49.68%E +5.07%K +5.65%G +2.80%5.4%2026-05-07 18:55
GTbets1.06I 94.34%NM 90.22%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000%9.78I 10.22%NM 9.78%EV +49.38%E +5.05%K +5.62%G +2.78%4.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Neds1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -12.73%E -12.36%K -424.40%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV +48.92%E +5.02%K +5.59%G +2.73%7.3%2026-05-07 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -12.73%E -12.36%K -424.40%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV +48.92%E +5.02%K +5.59%G +2.73%7.3%2026-05-07 18:55
Unibet (FR)1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +45.10%E +4.75%K +5.31%G +2.39%5.8%2026-05-07 18:54
Betr (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -11.04%E -10.51%K -220.75%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV +41.28%E +4.46%K +5.00%G +2.07%6.0%2026-05-07 18:55
Marathon Bet1.06I 94.34%NM 89.25%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.75%EV +34.41%E +3.91%K +4.41%G +1.52%5.7%2026-05-07 18:59
Everygame1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -11.88%E -11.43%K -297.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +29.83%E +3.51%K +3.98%G +1.19%7.9%2026-05-07 18:55
DraftKings1.09I 91.74%NM 88.39%EV -7.65%E -7.02%K -84.98%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.61%EV +26.77%E +3.23%K +3.67%G +0.982%3.8%2026-05-07 19:14
TAB1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -10.19%E -9.61%K -169.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +22.19%E +2.77%K +3.17%G +0.703%6.8%2026-05-07 18:54
Betclic (FR)1.04I 96.15%NM 88.50%EV -11.88%E -11.43%K -297.12%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV +22.19%E +2.77%K +3.17%G +0.703%8.7%2026-05-07 19:10
Coral1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +14.55%E +1.94%K +2.24%G +0.326%5.9%2026-05-07 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +14.55%E +1.94%K +2.24%G +0.326%5.9%2026-05-07 19:15
Betway1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.80%E -6.18%K -68.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080%5.2%2026-05-07 19:15
BetMGM1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080%6.9%2026-05-07 19:15
888sport1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080%6.9%2026-05-07 19:15
888sport (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080%6.9%2026-05-07 19:15
Mr Green (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.50%E -7.87%K -106.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +6.92%E +0.988%K +1.15%G +0.080%6.9%2026-05-07 19:15
Unibet1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -0.721%E -0.111%K -0.131%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 19:15
Casumo1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 19:15
Unibet (SE)1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 19:15
Unibet (NL)1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 19:15
betPARX1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 19:15
ATG (SE)1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 19:15
Svenska Spel1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 19:15
Hard Rock Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 19:15
FanDuel1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 19:15
theScore Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 19:15
Paddy Power1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.80%E -6.18%K -68.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-07 19:15
Winamax (DE)1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -7.65%E -7.02%K -84.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -8.36%E -1.39%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 19:15
Coolbet1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -3.41%E -2.99%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -11.41%E -1.97%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-07 19:15
Unibet (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.41%E -2.99%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -12.18%E -2.12%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 19:15
TABtouch1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -12.18%E -2.12%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 19:15
Betsson1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -12.94%E -2.27%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 19:15
NordicBet1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -12.94%E -2.27%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 19:15
BetRivers1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 19:15
Grosvenor1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 19:15
Virgin Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 19:15
LiveScore Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 19:15
Bally Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -14.47%E -2.58%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 19:15
PointsBet (AU)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.26%E -3.77%K -32.76%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 19:15
Tipico (DE)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 19:15
Caesars1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 19:15
LeoVegas1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 19:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 19:15
Fliff1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -15.99%E -2.91%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 19:15
Fanatics1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -5.11%E -4.56%K -42.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -17.52%E -3.24%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-07 19:15
PMU (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 82.81%EV -7.65%E -7.02%K -84.98%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -19.81%E -3.77%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-07 19:15
Winamax (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 82.54%EV -6.80%E -6.18%K -68.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -20.58%E -3.96%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-07 19:15
Bet Victor1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -2.56%E -2.23%K -17.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -23.63%E -4.73%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 19:15
BoyleSports1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -3.41%E -2.99%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -23.63%E -4.73%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 19:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%0.7%2026-05-07 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.12I 89.29%NM 87.98%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02%1.5%2026-05-07 19:15
Matchbook1.14I 87.72%NM 86.00%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.00%2.0%2026-05-07 19:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 88.17%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.83%3.1%2026-05-07 19:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 88.17%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.83%3.1%2026-05-07 19:15
Novig1.09I 91.74%NM 85.86%6.62I 15.11%NM 14.14%6.8%2026-05-07 19:15