Language:English
Maria Sakkari v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Maria Sakkari (Local)
Prediction 21.69%4.61fair odd
EV +4.13%
Edge +0.860%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.045%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.60%21.92%21.86%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.104.314.304.8032.26%23.18%23.26%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 78.31%1.28fair odd
EV +4.15%
Edge +3.12%
Kelly +12.57%
Growth +0.522%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.98%78.08%78.14%80.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.3385.47%82.25%81.97%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Sakkari (Local): 21.69%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 78.31%. For Iga Swiatek (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -32.75%E -10.57%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV +4.15%E +3.12%K +12.57%G +0.522% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -2.90%E -2.34%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -11.06%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.90%E -2.34%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 23:38 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.90%E -2.34%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.78I 20.92%NM 20.47%EV +3.69%E +0.772%K +0.977%G +0.036% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.53%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.49%EV -8.02%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.51%EV -3.68%E -2.99%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-09 23:42 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 23:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 23:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 23:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 23:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.89%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.23%E -3.31%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.47%E -3.66%K -20.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 23:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.12%EV -1.95%E -0.431%K -0.554%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.88%EV -5.25%E -4.34%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 23:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.25%E -4.34%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.25%E -4.34%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -6.72%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.25%E -4.34%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.25%E -4.34%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -11.06%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.25%E -4.34%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -11.06%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -5.25%E -4.34%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.213%E -0.046%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 23:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -3.47%E -0.779%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.07%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 23:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.03%E -5.03%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.81%E -5.73%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -7.81%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.13%EV -6.81%E -5.73%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.38%E -0.529%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.60%E -6.44%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 23:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -4.55%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.60%E -6.44%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV +4.13%E +0.860%K +1.09%G +0.045% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -8.38%E -7.16%K -49.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -5.64%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -8.38%E -7.16%K -49.30%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 0.5% | 2026-03-09 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-03-09 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-09 23:44 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 1.3% | 2026-03-09 23:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87% | 3.5% | 2026-03-09 23:45 |
| Novig◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81% | 4.9% | 2026-03-09 23:45 |