Language:English
Karolina Muchova v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Karolina Muchova (Local)
Prediction 32.37%3.09fair odd
EV +16.52%
Edge +4.59%
Kelly +6.36%
Growth +1.05%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.77%32.60%32.14%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.882.903.6040.00%34.67%34.48%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 67.63%1.48fair odd
EV +2.80%
Edge +1.84%
Kelly +5.39%
Growth +0.151%
assuming max odds 1.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%67.40%67.86%74.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.401.401.5280.00%71.24%71.43%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karolina Muchova (Local): 32.37%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 67.63%. For Karolina Muchova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +16.52%E +4.59%K +6.36%G +1.05% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -15.46%E -12.37%K -61.84%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +13.29%E +3.80%K +5.31%G +0.706% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -10.73%E -8.13%K -33.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-11 18:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +6.81%E +2.06%K +2.96%G +0.202% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -10.05%E -7.56%K -30.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV +6.81%E +2.06%K +2.96%G +0.202% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -12.08%E -9.29%K -40.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +3.58%E +1.12%K +1.63%G +0.058% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV +0.340%E +0.110%K +0.162%G +0.001% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -11.40%E -8.70%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-11 18:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -1.28%E -0.419%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -8.70%E -6.44%K -24.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -1.28%E -0.419%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -8.70%E -6.44%K -24.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -1.28%E -0.419%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -8.70%E -6.44%K -24.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.67%E -4.83%K -17.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.70%E -6.44%K -24.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -2.90%E -0.966%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -10.73%E -8.13%K -33.52%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -4.52%E -1.53%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -7.34%E -5.36%K -19.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 18:18 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.52%E -1.53%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.46%EV -5.49%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.54%EV -9.37%E -6.99%K -27.57%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-11 18:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.31%E -3.80%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.13%E -2.12%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.31%E -3.80%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.78%E -2.35%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.31%E -3.80%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -6.78%E -2.35%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.02%E -5.90%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -7.75%E -2.72%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.64%E -3.29%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.75%E -2.72%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.31%E -3.80%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -8.08%E -2.84%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -9.37%E -3.35%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV +1.45%E +0.966%K +2.90%G +0.042% | 2.4% | 2026-03-11 18:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -9.37%E -3.35%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -1.93%E -1.33%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 18:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.37%E -3.35%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.61%E -1.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.37%E -3.35%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.31%E -3.80%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -9.37%E -3.35%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -6.67%E -4.83%K -17.55%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -9.37%E -3.35%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -6.67%E -4.83%K -17.55%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -10.99%E -4.00%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV +1.45%E +0.966%K +2.90%G +0.042% | 3.0% | 2026-03-11 18:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -10.99%E -4.00%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV +1.45%E +0.966%K +2.90%G +0.042% | 3.0% | 2026-03-11 18:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.99%E -4.00%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.96%E -2.79%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -11.64%E -4.26%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.16%EV -1.26%E -0.861%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 18:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -14.23%E -5.37%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV +0.096%E +0.065%K +0.199%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -14.23%E -5.37%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -1.93%E -1.33%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 18:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -14.23%E -5.37%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -5.31%E -3.80%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.45%EV -14.55%E -5.51%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.55%EV -1.93%E -1.33%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 17:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -15.84%E -6.09%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV +2.80%E +1.84%K +5.39%G +0.151% | 4.3% | 2026-03-11 18:12 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -15.84%E -6.09%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV +1.45%E +0.966%K +2.90%G +0.042% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 16:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -15.84%E -6.09%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV +0.772%E +0.518%K +1.58%G +0.012% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 17:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -15.84%E -6.09%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV +0.096%E +0.065%K +0.199%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -15.84%E -6.09%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -2.61%E -1.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-11 18:07 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -15.84%E -6.09%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -2.61%E -1.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-11 18:08 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.63%EV -17.14%E -6.69%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.37%EV +0.096%E +0.065%K +0.199%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-11 18:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -19.08%E -7.63%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV +2.80%E +1.84%K +5.39%G +0.151% | 5.8% | 2026-03-11 18:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 0.8% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.82% | 1.1% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.26% | 1.8% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.82% | 2.3% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |
| Novig◎ | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44% | 2.9% | 2026-03-11 18:18 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87% | 3.8% | 2026-03-11 18:20 |