Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Victoria Mboko
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 74.26%1.35fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -8.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.49%74.27%74.30%76.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.281.281.3180.65%78.19%78.13%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Victoria Mboko (Visit)
Prediction 25.74%3.89fair odd
EV +2.94%
Edge +0.736%
Kelly +0.981%
Growth +0.029%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.95%25.73%25.70%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.693.754.0029.41%27.09%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 74.26%; Victoria Mboko (Visit): 25.74%. For Victoria Mboko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +2.94%E +0.736%K +0.981%G +0.029% | 4.4% | 2026-03-12 17:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.53%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.47%EV +1.66%E +0.420%K +0.562%G +0.009% | 3.4% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -5.68%E -4.48%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV +0.885%E +0.226%K +0.303%G +0.003% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 15:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.95%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 25.05%EV +0.113%E +0.029%K +0.039%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-12 14:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.68%E -4.48%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -0.916%E -0.238%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.15%EV -5.68%E -4.48%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.85%EV -1.17%E -0.306%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 06:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -2.20%E -0.580%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.68%E -4.48%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.20%E -0.580%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -2.20%E -0.580%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.20%E -0.580%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.20%E -0.580%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-11 21:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -7.91%E -6.38%K -32.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -2.20%E -0.580%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-12 15:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 12:08 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-12 17:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 00:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.68%E -4.48%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 17:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-12 15:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -3.49%E -0.931%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -3.75%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.78%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.78%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.78%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.78%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.90%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.10%EV -5.29%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-11 12:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -6.06%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 12:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -6.06%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 09:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.68%E -4.48%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -6.06%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-12 11:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -6.06%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-12 17:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -6.06%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-12 17:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -6.43%E -5.10%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -6.06%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-12 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -2.71%E -2.07%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -6.58%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 09:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -2.71%E -2.07%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -6.58%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 09:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -2.71%E -2.07%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -7.35%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-12 11:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.35%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 17:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.35%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 13:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.35%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 13:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.35%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 23:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.35%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 23:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -8.64%E -2.43%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-11 12:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.92%E -2.84%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -9.92%E -2.84%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-12 11:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -9.92%E -2.84%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-12 11:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -9.92%E -2.84%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-12 11:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.17%E -5.74%K -28.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.92%E -2.84%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-12 17:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.46%E -2.66%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -11.21%E -3.25%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.20%E -3.26%K -14.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -12.50%E -3.68%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-11 14:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -12.50%E -3.68%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-12 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.94%E -3.86%K -17.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -12.50%E -3.68%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-12 11:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-03-12 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-03-12 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-03-12 17:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-03-12 17:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93% | 1.9% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.19% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.81% | 2.3% | 2026-03-12 17:55 |