Language:English
Elise Mertens v Liudmila Samsonova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Elise Mertens (Local)
Prediction 94.70%1.06fair odd
EV +48.68%
Edge +31.00%
Kelly +85.40%
Growth +41.57%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.87%90.77%94.79%99.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.171.021.57100.00%85.34%98.04%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Liudmila Samsonova (Visit)
Prediction 5.30%18.86fair odd
EV +435.47%
Edge +4.31%
Kelly +4.35%
Growth +18.96%
assuming max odds 101.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.98%9.23%5.21%43.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.0718.4012.00101.0048.31%5.43%8.33%0.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elise Mertens (Local): 94.70%; Liudmila Samsonova (Visit): 5.30%. For Liudmila Samsonova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.86. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 101.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +435.47%.
Sportsbook Odds (67 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.87%EV +48.68%E +31.00%K +85.40%G +41.57% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.13%EV -89.03%E -43.01%K -83.20%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-06-15 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV +46.78%E +30.18%K +85.06%G +39.79% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -86.32%E -33.46%K -54.63%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV +46.78%E +30.18%K +85.06%G +39.79% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -86.32%E -33.46%K -54.63%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV +45.84%E +29.76%K +84.88%G +38.91% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -86.48%E -33.91%K -55.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-15 15:31 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV +45.84%E +29.76%K +84.88%G +38.91% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -86.48%E -33.91%K -55.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-15 15:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV +44.89%E +29.34%K +84.70%G +38.02% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -86.69%E -34.54%K -57.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +44.89%E +29.34%K +84.70%G +38.02% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -86.75%E -34.70%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +44.89%E +29.34%K +84.70%G +38.02% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -86.75%E -34.70%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV +43.94%E +28.91%K +84.50%G +37.13% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -86.48%E -33.91%K -55.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV +43.94%E +28.91%K +84.50%G +37.13% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -86.48%E -33.91%K -55.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 15:31 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%EV +43.94%E +28.91%K +84.50%G +37.13% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -86.64%E -34.38%K -57.00%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-15 16:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV +43.94%E +28.91%K +84.50%G +37.13% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -86.75%E -34.70%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV +42.99%E +28.47%K +84.30%G +36.25% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -86.22%E -33.16%K -53.88%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV +42.99%E +28.47%K +84.30%G +36.25% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -86.75%E -34.70%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -86.22%E -33.16%K -53.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -87.01%E -35.51%K -60.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-15 16:08 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -87.01%E -35.51%K -60.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-15 15:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -87.01%E -35.51%K -60.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-15 15:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -87.28%E -36.36%K -62.34%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV +40.15%E +27.13%K +83.65%G +33.59% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -87.01%E -35.51%K -60.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-15 16:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.45%EV +34.47%E +24.28%K +82.08%G +28.29% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.55%EV -85.74%E -31.87%K -50.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-15 15:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.51%EV +0.380%E +0.359%K +6.34%G +0.024% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.49%EV -63.95%E -9.40%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-15 17:37 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.44%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 12.60I 7.94%NM 7.56%EV -33.20%E -2.63%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 17:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 17:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -44.33%E -4.22%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -44.33%E -4.22%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -44.33%E -4.22%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -48.31%E -4.95%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.29%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000% | 36.58I 2.73%NM 2.71%EV +93.94%E +2.57%K +2.64%G +2.48% | 0.8% | 2026-06-15 17:51 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-15 17:43 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-15 17:48 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-15 17:43 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -41.68%E -3.79%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-15 17:47 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -46.98%E -4.70%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.23%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 56.00I 1.79%NM 1.77%EV +196.90%E +3.52%K +3.58%G +7.05% | 0.8% | 2026-06-15 17:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +80.26%E +2.36%K +2.43%G +1.95% | 2.0% | 2026-06-15 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.74%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.26%EV +59.05%E +1.97%K +2.04%G +1.20% | 2.3% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +21.94%E +0.954%K +0.997%G +0.219% | 3.4% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +6.03%E +0.302%K +0.318%G +0.019% | 4.0% | 2026-06-15 17:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -4.57%E -0.254%K -0.269%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-15 17:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -9.87%E -0.581%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -9.87%E -0.581%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-15 17:47 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.47%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.47%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.47%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.47%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -31.08%E -2.39%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -31.08%E -2.39%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-15 17:41 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -41.68%E -3.79%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -46.98%E -4.70%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-15 17:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 99.02%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 101.00I 0.99%NM 0.98%EV +435.47%E +4.31%K +4.35%G +18.96% | 1.0% | 2026-06-15 17:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.78%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 81.00I 1.23%NM 1.22%EV +329.44%E +4.07%K +4.12%G +13.57% | 1.2% | 2026-06-15 17:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.61%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 71.00I 1.41%NM 1.39%EV +276.42%E +3.89%K +3.95%G +10.92% | 1.4% | 2026-06-15 17:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +255.22%E +3.81%K +3.87%G +9.87% | 1.5% | 2026-06-15 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.25%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 56.00I 1.79%NM 1.75%EV +196.90%E +3.52%K +3.58%G +7.05% | 1.8% | 2026-06-15 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%EV +170.39%E +3.34%K +3.41%G +5.81% | 2.0% | 2026-06-15 17:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.04%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.96%EV +165.09%E +3.30%K +3.37%G +5.56% | 2.0% | 2026-06-15 17:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +117.37%E +2.86%K +2.93%G +3.44% | 2.4% | 2026-06-15 17:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +80.26%E +2.36%K +2.43%G +1.95% | 2.9% | 2026-06-15 17:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.77%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.23%EV +59.05%E +1.97%K +2.04%G +1.20% | 3.3% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +53.75%E +1.85%K +1.92%G +1.03% | 3.4% | 2026-06-15 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +11.34%E +0.540%K +0.567%G +0.064% | 4.8% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 94.13% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.87% | 0.2% | 2026-06-15 17:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.24% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.76% | 0.8% | 2026-06-15 17:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-06-15 17:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-06-15 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.21% | 54.95I 1.82%NM 1.79% | 1.8% | 2026-06-15 17:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 93.46% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.54% | 7.0% | 2026-06-15 17:56 |