L’École des cotes

Elise Mertens v Liudmila Samsonova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-15 18:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

67 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Elise Mertens (Local)

Prévision 94.70%1.06cote équitable
EV +48.68%
Avantage +31.00%
Kelly +85.40%
Croissance +41.57%

avec la cote maximale 1.57

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.87%90.77%94.79%99.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.001.171.021.57100.00%85.34%98.04%63.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Liudmila Samsonova (Visiteur)

Prévision 5.30%18.86cote équitable
EV +435.47%
Avantage +4.31%
Kelly +4.35%
Croissance +18.96%

avec la cote maximale 101.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
0.98%9.23%5.21%43.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.0718.4012.00101.0048.31%5.43%8.33%0.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (67 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
PMU (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.87%EV +48.68%E +31.00%K +85.40%G +41.57%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.13%EV -89.03%E -43.01%K -83.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-06-15 17:30
BetOnline.ag1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV +46.78%E +30.18%K +85.06%G +39.79%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -86.32%E -33.46%K -54.63%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-15 15:30
LowVig.ag1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV +46.78%E +30.18%K +85.06%G +39.79%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -86.32%E -33.46%K -54.63%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-15 15:30
BetAnything1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV +45.84%E +29.76%K +84.88%G +38.91%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -86.48%E -33.91%K -55.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-15 15:31
BetUS1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV +45.84%E +29.76%K +84.88%G +38.91%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -86.48%E -33.91%K -55.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-15 15:29
1xBet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV +44.89%E +29.34%K +84.70%G +38.02%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -86.69%E -34.54%K -57.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-15 15:30
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +44.89%E +29.34%K +84.70%G +38.02%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -86.75%E -34.70%K -57.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 15:30
Dabble (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +44.89%E +29.34%K +84.70%G +38.02%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -86.75%E -34.70%K -57.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 15:30
Unibet (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV +43.94%E +28.91%K +84.50%G +37.13%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -86.48%E -33.91%K -55.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-15 15:30
Bet Right1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV +43.94%E +28.91%K +84.50%G +37.13%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -86.48%E -33.91%K -55.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-15 15:31
Marathon Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%EV +43.94%E +28.91%K +84.50%G +37.13%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -86.64%E -34.38%K -57.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-15 16:04
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV +43.94%E +28.91%K +84.50%G +37.13%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -86.75%E -34.70%K -57.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-15 15:30
ReBet1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV +42.99%E +28.47%K +84.30%G +36.25%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -86.22%E -33.16%K -53.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-15 15:30
Betr (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV +42.99%E +28.47%K +84.30%G +36.25%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -86.75%E -34.70%K -57.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-15 15:30
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -86.22%E -33.16%K -53.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-15 15:30
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -87.01%E -35.51%K -60.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 16:08
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -87.01%E -35.51%K -60.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 15:50
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -87.01%E -35.51%K -60.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 15:50
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV +42.05%E +28.03%K +84.09%G +35.36%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -87.28%E -36.36%K -62.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-15 15:30
NetBet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV +40.15%E +27.13%K +83.65%G +33.59%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -87.01%E -35.51%K -60.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-15 16:00
GTbets1.42I 70.42%NM 65.45%EV +34.47%E +24.28%K +82.08%G +28.29%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.55%EV -85.74%E -31.87%K -50.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-15 15:30
Fliff1.06I 94.34%NM 86.51%EV +0.380%E +0.359%K +6.34%G +0.024%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.49%EV -63.95%E -9.40%K -11.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-15 17:37
Coolbet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.44%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%12.60I 7.94%NM 7.56%EV -33.20%E -2.63%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-15 17:39
Unibet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 17:40
Casumo1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 17:40
Unibet (NL)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 17:40
Svenska Spel1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 17:40
ATG (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 17:40
betPARX1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 17:39
TABtouch1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -44.33%E -4.22%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-15 17:40
Grosvenor1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -44.33%E -4.22%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-15 17:40
BetRivers1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -44.33%E -4.22%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-15 17:40
NordicBet1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -2.46%E -2.39%K -82.03%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -48.31%E -4.95%K -5.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-15 17:40
Pinnacle1.02I 98.04%NM 97.29%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000%36.58I 2.73%NM 2.71%EV +93.94%E +2.57%K +2.64%G +2.48%0.8%2026-06-15 17:51
Virgin Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-15 17:43
Caesars1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-15 17:48
LiveScore Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -36.38%E -3.03%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-15 17:43
Bet Victor1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -41.68%E -3.79%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-15 17:47
LeoVegas1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -3.41%E -3.34%K -170.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -46.98%E -4.70%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-15 17:40
FanDuel1.01I 99.01%NM 98.23%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%56.00I 1.79%NM 1.77%EV +196.90%E +3.52%K +3.58%G +7.05%0.8%2026-06-15 17:50
BetMGM1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +80.26%E +2.36%K +2.43%G +1.95%2.0%2026-06-15 17:55
Winamax (DE)1.01I 99.01%NM 96.74%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.26%EV +59.05%E +1.97%K +2.04%G +1.20%2.3%2026-06-15 17:49
Unibet (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +21.94%E +0.954%K +0.997%G +0.219%3.4%2026-06-15 17:49
Betway1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +6.03%E +0.302%K +0.318%G +0.019%4.0%2026-06-15 17:54
Unibet (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -4.57%E -0.254%K -0.269%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-15 17:44
888sport1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -9.87%E -0.581%K -0.617%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-15 17:49
Hard Rock Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -9.87%E -0.581%K -0.617%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-15 17:47
TAB1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.47%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-15 17:40
theScore Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.47%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-15 17:49
Mr Green (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.47%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-15 17:49
888sport (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.47%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-15 17:49
Betsson1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -31.08%E -2.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-15 17:49
Bally Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -31.08%E -2.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-15 17:41
Tipico (DE)1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -41.68%E -3.79%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-15 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -4.35%E -4.31%K -435.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -46.98%E -4.70%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-15 17:40
Sky Bet1.00I 100.00%NM 99.02%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.98%EV +435.47%E +4.31%K +4.35%G +18.96%1.0%2026-06-15 17:50
Fanatics1.00I 100.00%NM 98.78%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%81.00I 1.23%NM 1.22%EV +329.44%E +4.07%K +4.12%G +13.57%1.2%2026-06-15 17:54
Coral1.00I 100.00%NM 98.61%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%71.00I 1.41%NM 1.39%EV +276.42%E +3.89%K +3.95%G +10.92%1.4%2026-06-15 17:55
Paddy Power1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +255.22%E +3.81%K +3.87%G +9.87%1.5%2026-06-15 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.00I 100.00%NM 98.25%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%56.00I 1.79%NM 1.75%EV +196.90%E +3.52%K +3.58%G +7.05%1.8%2026-06-15 17:55
PointsBet (AU)1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%EV +170.39%E +3.34%K +3.41%G +5.81%2.0%2026-06-15 17:55
Betclic (FR)1.00I 100.00%NM 98.04%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.96%EV +165.09%E +3.30%K +3.37%G +5.56%2.0%2026-06-15 17:54
DraftKings1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +117.37%E +2.86%K +2.93%G +3.44%2.4%2026-06-15 17:54
BoyleSports1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +80.26%E +2.36%K +2.43%G +1.95%2.9%2026-06-15 17:54
Winamax (FR)1.00I 100.00%NM 96.77%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.23%EV +59.05%E +1.97%K +2.04%G +1.20%3.3%2026-06-15 17:49
Bovada1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +53.75%E +1.85%K +1.92%G +1.03%3.4%2026-06-15 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.30%E -5.30%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +11.34%E +0.540%K +0.567%G +0.064%4.8%2026-06-15 17:49
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 94.13%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.87%0.2%2026-06-15 17:41
Matchbook1.02I 98.04%NM 97.24%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.76%0.8%2026-06-15 17:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-06-15 17:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-06-15 17:50
Smarkets1.00I 100.00%NM 98.21%54.95I 1.82%NM 1.79%1.8%2026-06-15 17:50
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 93.46%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.54%7.0%2026-06-15 17:56