Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 77.87%1.28fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -10.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.19%77.91%77.84%79.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2584.75%82.02%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 22.13%4.52fair odd
EV +2.88%
Edge +0.620%
Kelly +0.790%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 4.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.42%22.09%22.16%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.304.304.6525.00%23.26%23.26%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 77.87%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 22.13%. For Naomi Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV +2.88%E +0.620%K +0.790%G +0.023% | 4.8% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +1.78%E +0.386%K +0.494%G +0.009% | 3.7% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -8.11%E -6.87%K -45.05%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +1.78%E +0.386%K +0.494%G +0.009% | 6.5% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -3.44%E -2.77%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -0.435%E -0.097%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -3.44%E -2.77%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -0.435%E -0.097%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV -0.435%E -0.097%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.435%E -0.097%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-01 18:13 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.435%E -0.097%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.435%E -0.097%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.435%E -0.097%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.435%E -0.097%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-01 18:18 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.77%E -4.77%K -27.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.77%E -4.77%K -27.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.65%E -0.602%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-01 18:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.14%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.36I 22.94%NM 21.86%EV -3.53%E -0.810%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.77%E -4.77%K -27.49%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.75%E -0.863%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -4.20%E -0.969%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.70%EV -3.44%E -2.77%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.30%EV -4.42%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-01 18:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.44%E -2.77%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.86%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.77%E -4.77%K -27.49%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.86%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-01 18:16 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.86%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.86%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.72%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.28%EV -5.08%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.44%E -2.77%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -5.97%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-01 18:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.77%E -4.77%K -27.49%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -5.97%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.44%E -2.77%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-01 18:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.21%E -3.43%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:07 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -8.18%E -1.97%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -8.18%E -1.97%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.29%E -2.26%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.29%E -2.26%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.99%E -4.09%K -22.70%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.29%E -2.26%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -2.66%E -2.13%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -11.28%E -2.81%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.66%E -2.13%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-01 18:13 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.55%E -5.46%K -32.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -7.33%E -6.16%K -38.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-01 18:17 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -7.33%E -6.16%K -38.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-01 18:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33% | 0.4% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.93% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.07% | 1.7% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.26% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.74% | 1.7% | 2026-06-01 18:20 |