Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Daria Kasatkina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 89.07%1.12fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -32.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.63%88.97%89.37%91.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.071.071.0996.15%93.76%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daria Kasatkina (Visit)
Prediction 10.93%9.15fair odd
EV +20.20%
Edge +1.84%
Kelly +2.02%
Growth +0.408%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.64%11.03%10.63%13.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.799.0011.0014.29%11.38%11.11%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 89.07%; Daria Kasatkina (Visit): 10.93%. For Daria Kasatkina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.15. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.20%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -7.36%E -7.08%K -184.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +20.20%E +1.84%K +2.02%G +0.408% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -7.36%E -7.08%K -184.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +20.20%E +1.84%K +2.02%G +0.408% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 12:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -7.36%E -7.08%K -184.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +20.20%E +1.84%K +2.02%G +0.408% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -7.36%E -7.08%K -184.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +20.20%E +1.84%K +2.02%G +0.408% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.75%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV +14.73%E +1.40%K +1.55%G +0.228% | 3.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.45%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 10.13I 9.87%NM 9.55%EV +10.69%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.125% | 3.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.11%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.89%EV +6.54%E +0.670%K +0.747%G +0.049% | 3.7% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +3.81%E +0.401%K +0.448%G +0.017% | 4.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +3.81%E +0.401%K +0.448%G +0.017% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -6.47%E -6.16%K -129.46%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV +1.07%E +0.116%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -6.47%E -6.16%K -129.46%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV +1.07%E +0.116%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.58%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.42%EV +0.528%E +0.057%K +0.064%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 12:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.58%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.42%EV +0.528%E +0.057%K +0.064%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.47%E -6.16%K -129.46%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.47%E -6.16%K -129.46%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.47%E -6.16%K -129.46%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -1.66%E -0.184%K -0.207%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -4.39%E -0.502%K -0.566%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -4.94%E -0.567%K -0.641%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.14%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.86%EV -4.94%E -0.567%K -0.641%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%EV -3.80%E -3.52%K -47.51%G +0.000% | 8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%EV -6.68%E -0.783%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.77%EV -3.80%E -3.52%K -47.51%G +0.000% | 8.54I 11.71%NM 11.23%EV -6.68%E -0.783%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.66%EV -2.91%E -2.67%K -32.34%G +0.000% | 8.52I 11.74%NM 11.34%EV -6.90%E -0.810%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -7.12%E -0.838%K -0.950%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.76%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.45I 11.83%NM 11.24%EV -7.67%E -0.907%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.85%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 8.45I 11.83%NM 11.15%EV -7.67%E -0.907%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.72%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 8.34I 11.99%NM 11.28%EV -8.87%E -1.06%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.72%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 8.34I 11.99%NM 11.28%EV -8.87%E -1.06%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.80%E -3.52%K -47.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.80%E -3.52%K -47.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.58%E -5.27%K -93.04%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -12.58%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -3.80%E -3.52%K -47.51%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -15.32%E -1.98%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -15.32%E -1.98%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.56%EV -3.80%E -3.52%K -47.51%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.44%EV -16.96%E -2.23%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 12:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -2.91%E -2.67%K -32.34%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -18.05%E -2.41%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-30 12:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -3.80%E -3.52%K -47.51%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -23.51%E -3.36%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -4.69%E -4.38%K -67.03%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -23.51%E -3.36%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-30 12:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.34% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.66% | 0.4% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.34% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.66% | 0.4% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.34% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.66% | 0.4% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.34% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.66% | 0.4% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.41% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.59% | 1.3% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.05% | 10.99I 9.10%NM 8.95% | 1.7% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |