Language:English
Simona Waltert v Jessica Pegula
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Simona Waltert (Local)
Prediction 9.71%10.30fair odd
EV +22.28%
Edge +1.77%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.428%
assuming max odds 12.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.70%9.69%9.68%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.609.1312.5913.33%10.42%10.96%7.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jessica Pegula (Visit)
Prediction 90.29%1.11fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -31.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.41%90.31%90.32%92.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.051.051.0898.04%94.80%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Simona Waltert (Local): 9.71%; Jessica Pegula (Visit): 90.29%. For Simona Waltert (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.30. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 12.59I 7.94%NM 7.70%EV +22.28%E +1.77%K +1.92%G +0.428% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.30%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-15 19:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +16.55%E +1.38%K +1.50%G +0.249% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-14 11:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +16.55%E +1.38%K +1.50%G +0.249% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-15 20:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +16.55%E +1.38%K +1.50%G +0.249% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-15 20:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +16.55%E +1.38%K +1.50%G +0.249% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-15 20:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.60I 8.62%NM 8.37%EV +12.66%E +1.09%K +1.19%G +0.151% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.63%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.44%EV +11.69%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.130% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.56%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +6.84%E +0.621%K +0.684%G +0.047% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 12:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +6.84%E +0.621%K +0.684%G +0.047% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 19:33 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +6.84%E +0.621%K +0.684%G +0.047% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 18:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +1.98%E +0.189%K +0.208%G +0.004% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 20:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 10.28I 9.73%NM 9.35%EV -0.157%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.65%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-15 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 10.28I 9.73%NM 9.35%EV -0.157%E -0.015%K -0.017%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.65%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-15 16:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -0.448%E -0.044%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 20:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 19:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 19:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 19:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 20:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -2.88%E -0.288%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.00%E -6.80%K -233.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 20:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV -3.36%E -0.338%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 19:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.68%EV -4.82%E -0.492%K -0.548%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.32%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 9.56I 10.46%NM 10.15%EV -7.15%E -0.748%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.85%EV -2.49%E -2.30%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-15 10:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -7.73%E -0.814%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 20:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -7.73%E -0.814%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 19:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -7.73%E -0.814%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 20:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -7.73%E -0.814%K -0.910%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.30%EV -7.91%E -7.75%K -395.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.14%EV -9.67%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.86%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -10.16%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-15 19:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 09:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 11:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 20:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -12.59%E -1.40%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -7.00%E -6.80%K -233.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-15 12:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.98I 11.14%NM 10.65%EV -12.78%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.35%EV -3.39%E -3.17%K -48.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -15.02%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV -15.02%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.71%EV -15.02%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 19:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.71%EV -15.02%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -17.44%E -2.05%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 20:33 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -17.44%E -2.05%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.30%E -4.05%K -71.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -17.44%E -2.05%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 18:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -17.44%E -2.05%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.10%E -5.87%K -152.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 09:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -22.30%E -2.79%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 20:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -22.30%E -2.79%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -22.30%E -2.79%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.20%E -4.95%K -103.96%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 20:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -27.16%E -3.62%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -2.49%E -2.30%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 20:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.90% | 0.6% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.90% | 0.6% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.90% | 0.6% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.40% | 1.2% | 2026-08-15 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.04% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.96% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 14.01I 7.14%NM 6.97% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.03% | 2.4% | 2026-08-15 20:35 |