Language:English
Jessica Pegula v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jessica Pegula (Local)
Prediction 32.39%3.09fair odd
EV +5.26%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +2.34%
Growth +0.123%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.36%32.34%32.49%34.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.953.003.2536.36%33.95%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 67.61%1.48fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -9.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.95%67.66%67.51%70.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4275.19%71.79%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jessica Pegula (Local): 32.39%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 67.61%. For Jessica Pegula (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +5.26%E +1.62%K +2.34%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 19:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +5.26%E +1.62%K +2.34%G +0.123% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 19:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +3.64%E +1.14%K +1.66%G +0.060% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -10.08%E -7.58%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 19:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.72%EV +3.00%E +0.942%K +1.37%G +0.041% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.28%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-22 19:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV +1.70%E +0.541%K +0.794%G +0.014% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -10.08%E -7.58%K -30.54%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-22 19:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -1.21%E -0.398%K -0.593%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-22 19:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -1.86%E -0.615%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -1.86%E -0.615%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 19:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 02:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 19:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 10:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.70%E -4.85%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 19:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.70%E -4.85%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 19:53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 19:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.88%EV -3.81%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.12%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 19:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 07:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 07:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 19:53 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.10%E -1.74%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 07:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.70%E -4.85%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-22 19:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-22 19:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-21 10:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.54%EV -8.66%E -3.07%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.46%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-22 19:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-22 19:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 18:58 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 18:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-22 12:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 19:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13% | 0.4% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13% | 0.4% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13% | 0.4% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 0.8% | 2026-08-22 19:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 0.8% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 0.9% | 2026-08-22 19:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58% | 2.0% | 2026-08-22 19:55 |