Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jessica Pegula v Iga Swiatek

Início: 2026-08-22 19:58 UTC

Final: Jessica Pegula 2–1 Iga Swiatek

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

59 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jessica Pegula (Local)

Previsão 32.39%3.09odd justa
EV +5.26%
Vantagem +1.62%
Kelly +2.34%
Crescimento +0.123%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.36%32.34%32.49%34.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.953.003.2536.36%33.95%33.33%30.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Iga Swiatek (Visitante)

Previsão 67.61%1.48odd justa
EV -3.99%
Vantagem -2.81%
Kelly -9.50%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.95%67.66%67.51%70.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.331.391.401.4275.19%71.79%71.43%70.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Jessica Pegula (Local): 32.39%; Iga Swiatek (Visitante): 67.61%. Para Jessica Pegula (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.09. 5 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.26%.

Odds das casas de apostas (59 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +5.26%E +1.62%K +2.34%G +0.123%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 19:44
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +5.26%E +1.62%K +2.34%G +0.123%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 19:45
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +3.64%E +1.14%K +1.66%G +0.060%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -10.08%E -7.58%K -30.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 19:45
Pinnacle🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 30.72%EV +3.00%E +0.942%K +1.37%G +0.041%1.41I 70.92%NM 69.28%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-22 19:45
SportsBet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV +1.70%E +0.541%K +0.794%G +0.014%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -10.08%E -7.58%K -30.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 19:44
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -1.21%E -0.398%K -0.593%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-22 19:10
LowVig.ag🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -1.86%E -0.615%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-22 19:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -1.86%E -0.615%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-22 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 19:10
1xBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 19:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 02:50
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 19:54
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 19:50
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:35
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:34
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:35
Bally Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:34
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:35
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:34
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:35
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:34
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 10:34
BetAnything🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 19:54
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.70%E -4.85%K -17.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 19:10
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.70%E -4.85%K -17.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 19:54
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 19:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.83%E -0.945%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 19:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.88%EV -3.81%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.12%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 19:44
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 19:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 07:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 07:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -6.02%E -4.33%K -15.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 19:53
Coolbet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.10%E -1.74%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.67%E -3.31%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 19:54
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 19:55
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 07:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.70%E -4.85%K -17.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 19:54
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 19:10
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.72%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 10:54
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 19:55
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 19:54
ReBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 19:55
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.54%EV -8.66%E -3.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.46%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 19:54
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 19:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 19:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 19:55
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 18:58
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 18:59
Fliff🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -9.31%E -3.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.36%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 19:55
Caesars🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.99%E -2.81%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 12:20
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 19:55
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 19:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 19:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.93%E -3.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.34%E -3.82%K -13.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 19:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%0.4%2026-08-22 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%0.4%2026-08-22 19:55
Matchbook◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%0.4%2026-08-22 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%0.8%2026-08-22 19:45
ProphetX◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%0.8%2026-08-22 19:55
Novig◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%0.9%2026-08-22 19:50
Smarkets◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58%2.0%2026-08-22 19:55