Language:English
Maria Timofeeva v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Maria Timofeeva (Local)
Prediction 21.79%4.59fair odd
EV +4.57%
Edge +0.953%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.055%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.90%21.84%21.75%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.284.254.8026.67%23.37%23.53%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 78.21%1.28fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -8.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.00%78.16%78.25%80.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2585.47%82.27%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Timofeeva (Local): 21.79%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 78.21%. For Maria Timofeeva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.59. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV +4.57%E +0.953%K +1.20%G +0.055% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-02 07:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV +4.35%E +0.909%K +1.15%G +0.050% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -6.93%E -5.82%K -36.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 07:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV +4.35%E +0.909%K +1.15%G +0.050% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -6.93%E -5.82%K -36.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 07:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV +3.48%E +0.733%K +0.929%G +0.032% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-02 07:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +0.215%E +0.047%K +0.060%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -6.93%E -5.82%K -36.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 07:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.96%E -0.436%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 06:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.96%E -0.436%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.96%E -0.436%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-02 07:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.96%E -0.436%K -0.561%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.14%E -5.12%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.41I 22.68%NM 21.95%EV -3.92%E -0.890%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.05%EV -3.01%E -2.43%K -12.56%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-02 07:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.14%E -0.941%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 07:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.14%E -0.941%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 07:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.14%E -0.941%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 06:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.14%E -0.941%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 07:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.14%E -0.941%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-02 07:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -4.14%E -0.941%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -6.93%E -5.82%K -36.45%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-02 07:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -4.14%E -0.941%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.71%E -6.53%K -42.82%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 07:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -4.14%E -0.941%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -8.49%E -7.26%K -49.94%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-02 06:46 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.75%EV -4.36%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.25%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-02 08:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -5.23%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 03:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.23%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-02 07:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -5.23%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -6.14%E -5.12%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-02 08:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -5.67%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 03:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -5.67%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.16%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 06:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -6.32%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.01%E -2.43%K -12.56%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-02 03:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -6.32%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-02 08:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -6.32%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -7.71%E -6.53%K -42.82%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 08:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.18%EV -6.76%E -1.58%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.82%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 07:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -7.41%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.01%E -2.43%K -12.56%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.41%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 08:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.41%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 07:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.41%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.36%E -4.43%K -25.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-02 06:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.80%E -3.09%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 08:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 09:16 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 07:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 08:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 08:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.58%E -3.75%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 08:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.14%E -5.12%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-02 06:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.50%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.14%E -5.12%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-02 06:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.86%E -3.21%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.01%E -2.43%K -12.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-02 06:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.86%E -3.21%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.01%E -2.43%K -12.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-02 06:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.86%E -3.21%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.14%E -5.12%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-02 08:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.86%E -3.21%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.14%E -5.12%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-02 08:08 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -15.03%E -3.86%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.92%EV -8.49%E -7.26%K -49.94%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-02 07:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -16.12%E -4.19%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.54%EV -7.71%E -6.53%K -42.82%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-02 07:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -17.21%E -4.53%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.23%E -1.79%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-01 09:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -18.30%E -4.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -2.23%E -1.79%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 09:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 08:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 08:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 08:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 08:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.85I 20.62%NM 20.23% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.77% | 1.9% | 2026-10-02 08:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.93% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.07% | 2.4% | 2026-10-02 08:21 |