Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Timofeeva v Naomi Osaka

2026-10-02 04:00 UTC — WTA China Open

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Maria Timofeeva (Local)

Predicción 21.76%4.60momio equitativo
EV +14.22%
Ventaja +2.71%
Kelly +3.35%
Crecimiento +0.476%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.97%21.58%21.71%24.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.564.455.2526.32%21.92%22.47%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Naomi Osaka (Visitante)

Predicción 78.24%1.28momio equitativo
EV -2.19%
Ventaja -1.76%
Kelly -8.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
75.25%78.42%78.29%82.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.111.191.181.2590.09%84.18%84.75%80.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Maria Timofeeva (Local): 21.76%; Naomi Osaka (Visitante): 78.24%. Para Maria Timofeeva (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.60. 19 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 5.25, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +14.22%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
LiveScore Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
BetRivers🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Unibet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Unibet (SE)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Virgin Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
TABtouch🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Grosvenor🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Casumo🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Bally Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
betPARX🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Svenska Spel🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +14.22%E +2.71%K +3.35%G +0.476%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -10.02%E -8.71%K -66.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-30 09:50
PMU (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV +4.43%E +0.922%K +1.17%G +0.052%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.22%EV -13.15%E -11.85%K -119.53%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-30 09:50
FanDuel🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +3.34%E +0.703%K +0.891%G +0.030%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -6.11%E -5.09%K -30.53%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-30 09:05
GTbets🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +3.34%E +0.703%K +0.891%G +0.030%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -7.67%E -6.50%K -42.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-30 10:00
SportsBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV +3.34%E +0.703%K +0.891%G +0.030%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-30 09:05
Bet Right🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.10%E -0.467%K -0.600%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.32%E -4.40%K -25.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-30 10:20
Betsson🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.10%E -0.467%K -0.600%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.32%E -4.40%K -25.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-30 11:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.10%E -0.467%K -0.600%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.11%E -5.09%K -30.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 10:15
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.10%E -0.467%K -0.600%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.11%E -5.09%K -30.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 09:15
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.10%E -0.467%K -0.600%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.45%E -7.23%K -49.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-30 09:05
Tipico (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -2.10%E -0.467%K -0.600%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -9.24%E -7.96%K -57.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-30 11:20
DraftKings🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.28%E -0.972%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-30 09:59
Fanatics🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.28%E -0.972%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.32%E -4.40%K -25.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 10:25
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.28%E -0.972%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.11%E -5.09%K -30.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-30 10:20
theScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -4.28%E -0.972%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.67%E -6.50%K -42.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-30 10:05
Marathon Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.36%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.32%E -4.40%K -25.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 10:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -6.45%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -6.89%E -5.79%K -36.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-30 10:20
1xBet🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.18%EV -6.89%E -1.61%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.82%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 10:04
Betway🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.54%E -1.77%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-30 10:20
LeoVegas🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -7.54%E -1.77%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -7.67%E -6.50%K -42.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 10:25
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.63%E -2.05%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-30 10:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.63%E -2.05%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-30 10:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.63%E -2.05%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-30 10:00
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.63%E -2.05%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.11%E -5.09%K -30.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-30 10:04
Caesars🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.63%E -2.05%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.11%E -5.09%K -30.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-30 12:17
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.80%E -2.63%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 10:55
TAB🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.98%E -3.24%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.98%E -3.24%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 10:50
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.98%E -3.24%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.54%E -3.72%K -20.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 10:55
Betclic (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.98%E -3.24%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.67%E -6.50%K -42.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-30 10:19
ReBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -12.98%E -3.24%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -8.45%E -7.23%K -49.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-30 10:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -15.15%E -3.89%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.92%EV -8.45%E -7.23%K -49.73%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-30 10:20
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -16.24%E -4.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -2.19%E -1.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-30 10:00
Neds🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -17.33%E -4.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.19%E -1.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-30 10:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -17.33%E -4.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.19%E -1.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-30 10:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -17.33%E -4.56%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.46%EV -8.45%E -7.23%K -49.73%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-30 10:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%5.2%2026-09-30 09:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%5.2%2026-09-30 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%5.2%2026-09-30 09:50
Matchbook◎3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.24%9.3%2026-09-30 09:30
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%11.2%2026-09-30 10:05
Arbitraje (45 combinaciones) +0.96%LiveScore Bet 5.25 (19.2%) / PlayUp 1.25 (80.8%)Ver las 45 combinaciones
Maria Timofeeva (Local)Naomi Osaka (Visitante)Margen
LiveScore Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
LiveScore Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
LiveScore Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
BetRivers🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
BetRivers🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
BetRivers🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Virgin Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Virgin Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Virgin Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
TABtouch🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
TABtouch🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
TABtouch🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet (NL)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet (NL)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Unibet (NL)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Grosvenor🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Grosvenor🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Grosvenor🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Casumo🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Casumo🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Casumo🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Bally Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Bally Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Bally Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
betPARX🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
betPARX🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
betPARX🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
ATG (SE)🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Svenska Spel🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Hard Rock Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)PlayUp🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Hard Rock Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Neds🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%
Hard Rock Bet🎯 5.25 (19.2%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.25 (80.8%)+0.962%