Language:English
Karolina Muchova v Liudmila Samsonova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Karolina Muchova (Local)
Prediction 75.48%1.32fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -6.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%75.39%75.58%77.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.261.261.3083.33%79.11%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Liudmila Samsonova (Visit)
Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV +3.00%
Edge +0.714%
Kelly +0.937%
Growth +0.028%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.65%24.61%24.42%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.793.754.2028.57%26.39%26.67%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karolina Muchova (Local): 75.48%; Liudmila Samsonova (Visit): 24.52%. For Liudmila Samsonova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.08. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.16%E -5.82%K -31.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +3.00%E +0.714%K +0.937%G +0.028% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 13:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.70%EV +1.04%E +0.252%K +0.332%G +0.003% | 2.4% | 2026-10-04 12:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV +0.547%E +0.133%K +0.176%G +0.001% | 3.8% | 2026-10-04 05:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +0.547%E +0.133%K +0.176%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 06:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +0.547%E +0.133%K +0.176%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 03:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.41%E -5.17%K -26.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +0.547%E +0.133%K +0.176%G +0.001% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 13:53 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -1.66%E -0.414%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 13:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.91%E -0.476%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 06:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.91%E -0.476%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 12:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.91%E -0.476%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 11:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.92%E -6.49%K -35.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -1.91%E -0.476%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 13:06 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -9.43%E -7.86%K -47.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -1.91%E -0.476%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-04 13:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.13%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 13:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.13%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 13:41 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -3.13%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 13:41 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -3.13%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 05:21 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 13:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.36%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 06:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -5.58%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 07:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -5.58%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 07:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -5.58%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 01:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -6.07%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 11:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -6.07%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 11:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -4.14%E -3.26%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -6.32%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 13:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-04 13:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 07:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 09:03 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.64%E -2.04%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.64%E -2.04%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 13:41 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 13:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 07:31 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 07:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 06:41 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:46 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:46 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:46 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:46 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:46 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 13:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.14%E -3.26%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-04 10:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.90%E -3.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.72%E -3.25%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-04 11:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.72%E -3.25%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 13:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.65%E -4.52%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.72%E -3.25%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 13:38 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.88%E -1.45%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 13:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.88%E -1.45%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 13:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.88%E -1.45%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 13:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.88%E -1.45%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 08:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.39%E -2.65%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 08:01 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.00%EV -7.16%E -5.82%K -31.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-02 10:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.15%EV -7.92%E -6.49%K -35.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-04 13:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.5% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52% | 3.3% | 2026-10-04 14:01 |