Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sara Bejlek v Iga Swiatek

Início: 2026-08-04 16:39 UTC

Final: Sara Bejlek 0–2 Iga Swiatek

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

66 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sara Bejlek (Local)

Previsão 12.92%7.74odd justa
EV +9.78%
Vantagem +1.15%
Kelly +1.30%
Crescimento +0.128%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.27%12.91%12.96%17.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.507.097.008.5018.18%14.10%14.29%11.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Iga Swiatek (Visitante)

Previsão 87.08%1.15odd justa
EV -1.59%
Vantagem -1.41%
Kelly -12.26%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.13

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
82.96%87.09%87.04%88.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.051.091.091.1395.24%91.49%91.74%88.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Sara Bejlek (Local): 12.92%; Iga Swiatek (Visitante): 87.08%. Para Sara Bejlek (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.74. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 8.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +9.78%.

Odds das casas de apostas (66 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
BoyleSports🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +9.78%E +1.15%K +1.30%G +0.128%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 15:25
Coolbet🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.76%EV +6.55%E +0.794%K +0.904%G +0.059%1.10I 90.91%NM 88.24%EV -4.21%E -3.82%K -42.07%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 15:00
LowVig.ag🎯8.07I 12.39%NM 11.90%EV +4.23%E +0.524%K +0.598%G +0.025%1.09I 91.74%NM 88.10%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯8.07I 12.39%NM 11.90%EV +4.23%E +0.524%K +0.598%G +0.025%1.09I 91.74%NM 88.10%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +3.32%E +0.415%K +0.475%G +0.016%1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +3.32%E +0.415%K +0.475%G +0.016%1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 14:59
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.32%E +0.415%K +0.475%G +0.016%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 16:34
BetUS🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +3.32%E +0.415%K +0.475%G +0.016%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.82%E -6.37%K -97.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 12:35
Tipico (DE)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +0.740%E +0.095%K +0.109%G +0.001%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.14%EV -8.56%E -8.15%K -171.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-04 15:24
NetBet (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV +0.094%E +0.012%K +0.014%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.97%EV -7.69%E -7.26%K -128.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 16:29
1xBet🎯7.63I 13.11%NM 12.50%EV -1.46%E -0.191%K -0.220%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.50%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 16:34
ReBet🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.54%EV -1.84%E -0.242%K -0.279%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.46%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 15:35
Betway🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -3.13%E -0.418%K -0.482%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.21%E -3.82%K -42.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 16:35
Fanatics🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -3.13%E -0.418%K -0.482%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 10:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -3.13%E -0.418%K -0.482%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 07:55
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -3.13%E -0.418%K -0.482%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 07:54
Unibet (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -3.13%E -0.418%K -0.482%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 16:25
BetAnything🎯7.45I 13.42%NM 12.76%EV -3.78%E -0.507%K -0.586%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.24%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 08:39
GTbets🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 12.94%EV -4.43%E -0.598%K -0.692%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 87.06%EV -4.21%E -3.82%K -42.07%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 08:15
FanDuel🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 12.84%EV -4.43%E -0.598%K -0.692%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.16%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 16:35
Pinnacle🎯7.35I 13.61%NM 13.12%EV -5.07%E -0.690%K -0.799%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 86.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 16:35
DraftKings🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 13.20%EV -5.72%E -0.783%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 86.80%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-04 16:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.99%EV -5.72%E -0.783%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.01%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 10:25
LeoVegas🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.89%EV -5.72%E -0.783%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.11%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 15:20
NordicBet🎯7.27I 13.76%NM 12.93%EV -6.11%E -0.840%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.07%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 16:35
Betsson🎯7.27I 13.76%NM 12.93%EV -6.11%E -0.840%K -0.974%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.07%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 16:34
BetMGM🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -6.36%E -0.878%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 07:55
Fliff🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 12.91%EV -7.65%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.09%EV -7.69%E -7.26%K -128.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-04 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.21%E -3.82%K -42.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 16:34
Betr (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 14:45
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 07:49
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 16:35
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 16:35
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 16:35
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 16:35
Caesars🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.59%E -1.37%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-03 22:59
Unibet (FR)🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.71%EV -12.18%E -1.79%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.29%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-04 16:28
Unibet (NL)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:30
Unibet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:30
Casumo🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:29
LiveScore Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:29
Grosvenor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:29
TABtouch🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:29
Unibet (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:29
BetRivers🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:30
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:29
betPARX🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:29
Bally Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:30
Svenska Spel🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 06:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 07:30
theScore Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -12.82%E -1.90%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.21%E -3.82%K -42.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 07:55
Dabble (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -16.05%E -2.47%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 16:35
Neds🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -16.05%E -2.47%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.21%E -3.82%K -42.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 07:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -16.05%E -2.47%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.21%E -3.82%K -42.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 07:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -16.05%E -2.47%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.21%E -3.82%K -42.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -16.05%E -2.47%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 16:34
Bet Victor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -16.05%E -2.47%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 14:54
betano_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -16.05%E -2.47%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.95%E -5.51%K -74.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 15:19
PMU (FR)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -17.34%E -2.71%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-03 06:30
PlayUp🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -19.28%E -3.08%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -3.34%E -3.01%K -30.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 16:35
SportsBet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -22.51%E -3.75%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -5.08%E -4.66%K -56.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 16:35
TAB🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -28.97%E -5.27%K -6.44%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -1.59%E -1.41%K -12.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-04 16:34
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25%0.5%2026-08-04 16:35
Matchbook7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25%0.5%2026-08-04 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89%0.7%2026-08-04 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89%0.7%2026-08-04 16:35
Novig7.69I 13.00%NM 12.81%1.13I 88.50%NM 87.19%1.5%2026-08-04 16:35
ProphetX7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33%1.6%2026-08-04 16:35
Smarkets7.60I 13.16%NM 12.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 87.16%2.4%2026-08-04 16:35