Language:English
Leylah Fernandez v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Leylah Fernandez (Local)
Prediction 30.14%3.32fair odd
EV -0.536%
Edge -0.162%
Kelly -0.233%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.79%30.14%30.13%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.103.3034.48%32.01%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 69.86%1.43fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -5.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.76%69.86%69.87%71.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4076.92%73.62%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leylah Fernandez (Local): 30.14%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 69.86%. For Leylah Fernandez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -0.536%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -0.536%E -0.162%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-09 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.37%EV -1.44%E -0.441%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.63%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 22:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%EV -2.04%E -0.629%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89%EV -2.20%E -1.57%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-08-09 22:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -2.04%E -0.629%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.59%E -2.60%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-09 22:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -2.04%E -0.629%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.59%E -2.60%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.04%E -0.629%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 22:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.04%E -0.629%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.04%E -0.629%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.04%E -0.629%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.04%E -0.629%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV -2.34%E -0.724%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.21%EV -8.48%E -6.48%K -27.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -3.25%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.09%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -3.25%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.09%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 22:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.55%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.55%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.55%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 22:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.55%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-09 22:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -3.85%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-09 22:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -4.15%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -5.69%E -4.21%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 22:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.24%EV -4.76%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.76%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 22:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.06%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.06%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.06%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.06%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.06%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.06%E -1.61%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.27%EV -6.26%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.73%EV -5.69%E -4.21%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-09 22:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.27%EV -6.26%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.73%EV -5.69%E -4.21%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.59%E -2.60%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 04:04 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.29%E -3.13%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 08:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -8.07%E -2.65%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.20%E -1.57%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 16:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 07:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 22:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.99%E -3.67%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 04:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.69%E -4.21%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.69%E -4.21%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 08:41 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 14:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 22:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.58%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.09%E -5.33%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 22:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.59%E -4.34%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.59%E -2.60%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.59%E -4.34%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.59%E -2.60%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 08:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 22:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-08-09 22:30 |
| Novig◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.60% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.40% | 1.5% | 2026-08-09 22:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.21% | 1.7% | 2026-08-09 22:55 |