Language:English
Karolina Muchova v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Karolina Muchova (Local)
Prediction 42.44%2.36fair odd
EV +4.83%
Edge +1.95%
Kelly +3.28%
Growth +0.158%
assuming max odds 2.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.56%42.86%42.23%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.212.232.4752.36%45.18%44.84%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 57.56%1.74fair odd
EV +3.61%
Edge +2.00%
Kelly +4.51%
Growth +0.163%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%57.14%57.77%61.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.641.621.8065.36%61.14%61.73%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karolina Muchova (Local): 42.44%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 57.56%. For Karolina Muchova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.83%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -18.94%E -9.92%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV +3.61%E +2.00%K +4.51%G +0.163% | 7.9% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -15.97%E -8.07%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV +1.88%E +1.06%K +2.44%G +0.046% | 7.0% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -15.12%E -7.56%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV +0.730%E +0.417%K +0.973%G +0.007% | 7.1% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -15.12%E -7.56%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV +0.730%E +0.417%K +0.973%G +0.007% | 7.1% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.421%E -0.243%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.421%E -0.243%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.421%E -0.243%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.421%E -0.243%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.421%E -0.243%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -11.72%E -5.64%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -1.57%E -0.920%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -2.15%E -1.26%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -12.15%E -5.87%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -2.15%E -1.26%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -12.15%E -5.87%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -2.15%E -1.26%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -2.72%E -1.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -13.42%E -6.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%EV -3.30%E -1.96%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.67%EV -18.52%E -9.64%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.33%EV -3.30%E -1.96%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -5.36%E -2.40%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -3.87%E -2.32%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.87%E -2.32%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.87%E -2.32%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.87%E -2.32%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.87%E -2.32%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.266%E -0.113%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.03%E -3.05%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-27 09:07 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.266%E -0.113%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.03%E -3.05%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-27 09:08 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.60%E -3.42%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.60%E -3.42%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.60%E -3.42%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.25%EV +2.70%E +1.12%K +1.90%G +0.052% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.75%EV -6.18%E -3.79%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -5.36%E -2.40%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -6.18%E -3.79%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -5.36%E -2.40%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -6.18%E -3.79%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -0.266%E -0.113%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.75%E -4.17%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.75%E -4.17%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-27 09:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.75%E -4.17%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.75%E -4.17%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV +0.158%E +0.067%K +0.116%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 08:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -0.266%E -0.113%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 08:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -0.266%E -0.113%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 08:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -0.690%E -0.295%K -0.515%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-27 08:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44%EV -7.91%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.90%E -4.94%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +1.86%E +0.773%K +1.33%G +0.025% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -8.48%E -5.33%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-27 08:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV +1.01%E +0.423%K +0.730%G +0.007% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -8.48%E -5.33%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -2.39%E -1.04%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -8.48%E -5.33%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-27 08:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -8.48%E -5.33%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +1.86%E +0.773%K +1.33%G +0.025% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -9.06%E -5.73%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 08:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.63%E -6.13%K -16.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-27 08:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.63%E -6.13%K -16.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-27 07:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -9.63%E -6.13%K -16.90%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -1.11%E -0.478%K -0.838%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -10.21%E -6.54%K -18.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-27 09:08 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV +4.83%E +1.95%K +3.28%G +0.158% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -10.78%E -6.96%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -0.266%E -0.113%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -10.78%E -6.96%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -1.54%E -0.663%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -10.78%E -6.96%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-27 08:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV +0.583%E +0.246%K +0.425%G +0.002% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -11.93%E -7.80%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV +0.583%E +0.246%K +0.425%G +0.002% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -11.93%E -7.80%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-27 08:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -0.266%E -0.113%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -11.93%E -7.80%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -0.266%E -0.113%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -11.93%E -7.80%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-27 08:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 0.9% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 0.9% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07% | 3.1% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.01% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.99% | 8.9% | 2026-06-27 09:10 |