Language:English
Roberto Bautista Agut v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Roberto Bautista Agut (Local)
Prediction 21.67%4.62fair odd
EV +8.33%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.08%
Growth +0.173%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%21.60%21.64%25.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.744.374.405.0026.74%22.89%22.73%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 78.33%1.28fair odd
EV +0.268%
Edge +0.210%
Kelly +0.959%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.50%78.40%78.36%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.211.2885.47%82.73%82.64%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roberto Bautista Agut (Local): 21.67%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 78.33%. For Roberto Bautista Agut (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.62. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.33%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +8.33%E +1.67%K +2.08%G +0.173% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -8.35%E -7.14%K -49.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 18:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.54%EV +2.26%E +0.479%K +0.608%G +0.014% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.46%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-29 13:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.68I 21.37%NM 20.41%EV +1.39%E +0.298%K +0.379%G +0.005% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.59%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -0.340%E -0.074%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-29 12:51 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -0.340%E -0.074%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-29 08:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.340%E -0.074%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -0.340%E -0.074%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -7.57%E -6.41%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 01:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.01%EV -1.42%E -0.313%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.99%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 01:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -2.86%E -2.31%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 12:51 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-28 14:58 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 12:58 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-28 14:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 14:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.35%E -7.14%K -49.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-29 13:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.35%E -7.14%K -49.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-29 13:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.51%E -0.557%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.35%E -7.14%K -49.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-29 12:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.67%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 08:28 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -5.76%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -5.76%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.76%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 12:51 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -5.76%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 12:51 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -6.19%E -1.43%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.16%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.19%E -1.43%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 02:56 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.74%EV -6.41%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.74%EV -6.41%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.26%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -6.84%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 12:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -6.84%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -6.78%E -5.70%K -35.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.92%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 12:51 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.92%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -7.92%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.92%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.92%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -7.92%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.21%E -4.31%K -24.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.92%E -1.86%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.01%E -2.14%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.01%E -2.14%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.01%E -2.14%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 13:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.01%E -2.14%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 11:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.01%E -2.14%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.01%E -2.14%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-29 12:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -10.09%E -2.43%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.34%E -3.33%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-29 12:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.34%E -3.33%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.43%E -3.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-29 10:06 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.34%E -3.33%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.00%E -5.00%K -29.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-29 00:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.34%E -3.33%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.57%E -6.41%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-29 12:58 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -18.97%E -5.07%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV +0.268%E +0.210%K +0.959%G +0.003% | 4.9% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 0.6% | 2026-06-29 12:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 1.1% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 1.1% | 2026-06-29 13:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.80% | 1.1% | 2026-06-29 13:01 |
| ProphetX◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 1.3% | 2026-06-29 13:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.73% | 2.8% | 2026-06-29 13:01 |
| Novig◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.01% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.99% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 13:00 |