Language:English
Mattia Bellucci v Zachary Svajda
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mattia Bellucci (Local)
Prediction 54.63%1.83fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.617%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%54.67%54.67%56.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.731.731.8160.24%57.85%57.80%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Zachary Svajda (Visit)
Prediction 45.37%2.20fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.928%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.57%45.33%45.33%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.1650.00%47.81%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mattia Bellucci (Local): 54.63%; Zachary Svajda (Visit): 45.37%. For Mattia Bellucci (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.81, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -1.12%E -0.617%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.17%EV -4.27%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-06-28 20:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%EV -1.66%E -0.924%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%EV -2.00%E -0.928%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-06-28 17:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -2.76%E -1.55%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-28 21:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.30%E -1.87%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.46%E -1.14%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-06-29 09:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.30%E -1.87%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-28 16:18 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.30%E -1.87%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-28 14:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.30%E -1.87%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 19:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.30%E -1.87%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 16:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -3.85%E -2.19%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-28 21:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.39%E -2.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-28 13:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.39%E -2.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.39%E -2.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 21:29 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -4.39%E -2.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -7.45%E -3.65%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-28 21:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -4.39%E -2.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -7.45%E -3.65%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-28 21:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -4.39%E -2.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -7.45%E -3.65%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-28 23:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.94%E -2.84%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.00%E -0.928%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-27 10:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.94%E -2.84%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 10:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%EV -4.94%E -2.84%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -5.18%E -2.48%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-28 17:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.94%E -2.84%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-28 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 10:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 05:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 05:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 11:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 12:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 07:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -5.49%E -3.17%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 16:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.03%E -3.51%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.03%E -3.51%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-28 01:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -6.58%E -3.85%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -2.00%E -0.928%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-28 08:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.58%E -3.85%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-28 05:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -6.58%E -3.85%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-29 08:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%EV -6.58%E -3.85%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-29 08:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -6.58%E -3.85%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -8.36%E -4.14%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-28 21:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -7.13%E -4.19%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.82%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-28 05:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -7.13%E -4.19%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -3.82%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 18:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.13%E -4.19%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-28 00:49 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.13%E -4.19%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-28 06:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.13%E -4.19%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -6.09%E -2.94%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-29 08:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.13%E -4.19%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-28 05:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.13%E -4.19%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-28 05:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.67%E -4.54%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.46%E -1.14%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-28 10:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.77%E -5.25%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 01:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.77%E -5.25%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 01:48 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.77%E -5.25%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-29 08:48 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.77%E -5.25%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.73%E -2.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 01:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -9.31%E -5.61%K -14.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -2.46%E -1.14%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-28 01:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 0.6% | 2026-06-28 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 0.6% | 2026-06-28 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 0.6% | 2026-06-28 15:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56% | 2.3% | 2026-06-28 16:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78% | 3.0% | 2026-06-28 21:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 53.19% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.81% | 11.3% | 2026-06-28 21:30 |