The School of OddsJannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic
Head to Head
Option 1: Jannik Sinner (Local)
Odds
1.1984.03%Min
1.2381.58%Mean
1.2381.30%Median
1.2878.13%Max
Consensus probabilities
73.22%1.366Min
79.97%1.251Max
76.91%1.300Mean
76.97%1.299Median
76.85%1.301IQM
77.06%1.298Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.28 under the IQM model: 76.85%
EV -1.63%Edge -1.27%Kelly -5.81%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Novak Djokovic (Visit)
Odds
3.5028.57%Min
4.1224.27%Mean
4.2023.81%Median
4.7521.05%Max
Consensus probabilities
20.03%4.992Min
26.78%3.734Max
23.09%4.331Mean
23.03%4.341Median
23.15%4.320IQM
22.94%4.358Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.75 under the IQM model: 23.15%
EV +9.94%Edge +2.09%Kelly +2.65%Growth +0.264%
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Jannik Sinner (Local) | Novak Djokovic (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 1.19I 84.03% NM 79.97%EV -8.54% E -7.18% K -44.97% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 20.03%EV +9.94% E +2.09% K +2.65% G +0.264% | 5.1% | 2026-07-08 00:01 |
| FanDuel | 1.20I 83.33% NM 79.49%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51% NM 20.51%EV +7.63% E +1.64% K +2.09% G +0.159% | 4.8% | 2026-07-08 00:14 |
| Betway | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.95%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 21.05%EV +4.16% E +0.924% K +1.19% G +0.049% | 5.6% | 2026-07-07 22:12 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.95%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 21.05%EV +4.16% E +0.924% K +1.19% G +0.049% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 00:11 |
| Sky Bet | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.95%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 21.05%EV +4.16% E +0.924% K +1.19% G +0.049% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 00:13 |
| Paddy Power | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.95%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 21.05%EV +4.16% E +0.924% K +1.19% G +0.049% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 00:15 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.57%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.43%EV +1.84% E +0.419% K +0.542% G +0.010% | 6.1% | 2026-07-07 22:12 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.57%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.43%EV +1.84% E +0.419% K +0.542% G +0.010% | 6.1% | 2026-07-07 22:12 |
| betfred_uk | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.30%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 21.70%EV +0.222% E +0.051% K +0.067% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-07 22:13 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.24I 80.65% NM 77.62%EV -4.70% E -3.79% K -19.59% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.38%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-07 23:59 |
| Unibet | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| BetRivers | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| Grosvenor | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| TABtouch | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:19 |
| Casumo | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:19 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| betPARX | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:19 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| Bally Bet | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -0.473% E -0.110% K -0.143% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-07 22:19 |
| 1xBet | 1.27I 78.74% NM 77.08%EV -2.40% E -1.89% K -8.87% G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42% NM 22.92%EV -1.17% E -0.273% K -0.357% G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-07-07 23:10 |
| Bovada | 1.24I 80.65% NM 77.41%EV -4.70% E -3.79% K -19.59% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 22.59%EV -1.63% E -0.384% K -0.502% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 23:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.24I 80.65% NM 77.41%EV -4.70% E -3.79% K -19.59% G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53% NM 22.59%EV -1.63% E -0.384% K -0.502% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 23:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26I 79.37% NM 77.01%EV -3.16% E -2.51% K -12.17% G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70% NM 22.99%EV -2.32% E -0.551% K -0.722% G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-07 23:17 |
| Fanatics | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -2.79% E -0.664% K -0.871% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| William Hill | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -2.79% E -0.664% K -0.871% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-07 23:25 |
| Everygame | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV -2.79% E -0.664% K -0.871% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-07 23:35 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.21I 82.64% NM 77.63%EV -7.01% E -5.79% K -33.36% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.37%EV -2.79% E -0.664% K -0.871% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-07 22:19 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.21I 82.64% NM 77.63%EV -7.01% E -5.79% K -33.36% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.37%EV -2.79% E -0.664% K -0.871% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-07 22:19 |
| NordicBet | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.15%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27% NM 22.85%EV -4.64% E -1.13% K -1.49% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| Betsson | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.15%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27% NM 22.85%EV -4.64% E -1.13% K -1.49% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| GTbets | 1.26I 79.37% NM 76.49%EV -3.16% E -2.51% K -12.17% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.51%EV -5.10% E -1.24% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-07 22:25 |
| theScore Bet | 1.23I 81.30% NM 76.92%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.08%EV -5.10% E -1.24% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-07 23:44 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 76.92%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.08%EV -5.10% E -1.24% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.07%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.93%EV -5.10% E -1.24% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.07%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.93%EV -5.10% E -1.24% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-07 22:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.19I 84.03% NM 77.50%EV -8.54% E -7.18% K -44.97% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.50%EV -5.10% E -1.24% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-07 22:20 |
| DraftKings | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.24%EV -3.93% E -3.15% K -15.73% G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94% NM 23.76%EV -7.19% E -1.79% K -2.39% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-07 22:28 |
| 888sport | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.19%EV -3.93% E -3.15% K -15.73% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.81%EV -7.42% E -1.85% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-07 22:44 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 76.48%EV -5.47% E -4.45% K -23.78% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.52%EV -7.42% E -1.85% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-08 00:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.21I 82.64% NM 76.78%EV -7.01% E -5.79% K -33.36% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.22%EV -7.42% E -1.85% K -2.47% G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| LeoVegas | 1.20I 83.33% NM 76.70%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 23.30%EV -8.57% E -2.17% K -2.91% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-07 23:50 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.21I 82.64% NM 76.32%EV -7.01% E -5.79% K -33.36% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 23.68%EV -9.73% E -2.50% K -3.36% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-07 23:50 |
| TAB | 1.25I 80.00% NM 75.25%EV -3.93% E -3.15% K -15.73% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.75%EV -12.05% E -3.17% K -4.30% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-07 22:28 |
| BetMGM | 1.25I 80.00% NM 75.25%EV -3.93% E -3.15% K -15.73% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.75%EV -12.05% E -3.17% K -4.30% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-07 22:28 |
| Neds | 1.26I 79.37% NM 74.85%EV -3.16% E -2.51% K -12.17% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.15%EV -13.20% E -3.52% K -4.80% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-07 22:28 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.26I 79.37% NM 74.85%EV -3.16% E -2.51% K -12.17% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.15%EV -13.20% E -3.52% K -4.80% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-07 22:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.25I 80.00% NM 75.00%EV -3.93% E -3.15% K -15.73% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.00%EV -13.20% E -3.52% K -4.80% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-07 22:28 |
| Coral | 1.25I 80.00% NM 75.00%EV -3.93% E -3.15% K -15.73% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.00%EV -13.20% E -3.52% K -4.80% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-07 22:29 |
| Bet Victor | 1.22I 81.97% NM 75.45%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.55%EV -13.20% E -3.52% K -4.80% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-07 23:15 |
| BoyleSports | 1.22I 81.97% NM 75.45%EV -6.24% E -5.11% K -28.35% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.55%EV -13.20% E -3.52% K -4.80% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-07 22:37 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.20I 83.33% NM 75.76%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -13.20% E -3.52% K -4.80% G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-07 23:49 |
| ReBet | 1.20I 83.33% NM 75.76%EV -7.78% E -6.48% K -38.88% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -13.20% E -3.52% K -4.80% G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.19I 84.03% NM 75.41%EV -8.54% E -7.18% K -44.97% G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40% NM 24.59%EV -15.52% E -4.25% K -5.86% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-07 23:44 |
| PlayUp | 1.28I 78.13% NM 73.77%EV -1.63% E -1.27% K -5.81% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 26.23%EV -16.67% E -4.63% K -6.41% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-07 22:10 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.19I 84.03% NM 75.16%EV -8.54% E -7.18% K -44.97% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 24.84%EV -16.67% E -4.63% K -6.41% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.28I 78.13% NM 73.22%EV -1.63% E -1.27% K -5.81% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.78%EV -18.99% E -5.43% K -7.60% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-07 22:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Jannik Sinner (Local) | Novak Djokovic (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.64% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.36% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 00:12 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.64% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.36% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 00:13 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.64% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.36% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 00:13 |
| Matchbook | 1.20I 83.33% NM 76.92% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.08% | 8.3% | 2026-07-07 23:51 |
| ProphetX | 1.21I 82.64% NM 75.85% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.15% | 9.0% | 2026-07-07 23:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.20I 83.33% NM 75.00% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.00% | 11.1% | 2026-07-07 23:45 |
Arbitrage (5 combinations) +0.83%PlayUp 1.28 (78.8%) / SportsBet 4.75 (21.2%)Show all 5 combinations
| Jannik Sinner (Local) | Novak Djokovic (Visit) | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| PlayUp 1.28 (78.8%) | SportsBet 4.75 (21.2%) | +0.829% |
| Dabble (AU) 1.28 (78.8%) | SportsBet 4.75 (21.2%) | +0.829% |
| PlayUp 1.28 (78.4%) | FanDuel 4.65 (21.6%) | +0.371% |
| Dabble (AU) 1.28 (78.4%) | FanDuel 4.65 (21.6%) | +0.371% |
| 1xBet 1.27 (78.9%) | SportsBet 4.75 (21.1%) | +0.208% |