Language:English
Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Prediction 44.83%2.23fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.623%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.97%44.88%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2050.00%47.56%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit)
Prediction 55.17%1.81fair odd
EV +0.958%
Edge +0.523%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%55.03%55.12%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.721.8360.61%58.19%58.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 44.83%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit): 55.17%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.958%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +0.958%E +0.523%K +1.15%G +0.011% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -6.75%E -3.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -1.80%E -1.01%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -7.65%E -3.71%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -1.80%E -1.01%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.65%E -3.71%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.90%E -1.65%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.46%E -1.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.46%E -1.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.75%E -3.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.46%E -1.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.46%E -1.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.37%E -0.623%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.16%E -1.46%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 11:33 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -1.37%E -0.623%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -1.37%E -0.623%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:38 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -6.75%E -3.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:38 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:38 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:38 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 11:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -4.51%E -2.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.91%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 11:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -4.51%E -2.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.91%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 11:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.37%E -0.623%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 44.99%EV -8.99%E -4.43%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.01%EV -8.42%E -5.07%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.97%E -5.44%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 0.5% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.61% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.39% | 1.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Novig◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42% | 2.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19% | 2.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |