La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Predicción 44.83%2.23momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.623%
Kelly -1.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.15%44.97%44.88%47.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.102.102.2050.00%47.56%47.62%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante)
Predicción 55.17%1.81momio equitativo
EV +0.958%
Ventaja +0.523%
Kelly +1.15%
Crecimiento +0.011%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.22%55.03%55.12%56.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.651.721.721.8360.61%58.19%58.14%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +0.958%E +0.523%K +1.15%G +0.011% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| SportsBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -6.75%E -3.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -1.80%E -1.01%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| FanDuel | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -7.65%E -3.71%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -1.80%E -1.01%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.65%E -3.71%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.90%E -1.65%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:35 |
| Betway | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.46%E -1.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| TAB | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.46%E -1.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| PlayUp | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.75%E -3.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.46%E -1.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.46%E -1.97%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.37%E -0.623%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| BetAnything | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.16%E -1.46%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| 1xBet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-29 11:33 |
| William Hill | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Neds | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| betfred_uk | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Sky Bet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.34%E -5.17%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -1.37%E -0.623%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -1.37%E -0.623%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Unibet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Casumo | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| TABtouch | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Grosvenor | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| BetRivers | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Bally Bet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| betPARX | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:38 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.96%E -2.34%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| DraftKings | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Dabble (AU) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -6.75%E -3.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Bovada | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| BetMGM | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Caesars | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:38 |
| BetUS | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:38 |
| Coolbet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:38 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Everygame | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 11:29 |
| 888sport | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Coral | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.21%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| NordicBet | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -4.51%E -2.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.91%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 11:29 |
| Betsson | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -4.51%E -2.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.91%EV -7.32%E -4.36%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-29 11:30 |
| theScore Bet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.37%E -0.623%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.03I 49.26%NM 44.99%EV -8.99%E -4.43%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.01%EV -8.42%E -5.07%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Fanatics | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.97%E -5.44%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 0.5% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-06-29 11:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| ProphetX | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.61% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.39% | 1.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Novig | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42% | 2.0% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |
| Smarkets | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19% | 2.4% | 2026-06-29 11:39 |