Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Zachary Svajda
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 83.64%1.20fair odd
EV -0.466%
Edge -0.392%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.99%83.81%83.57%88.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.131.121.1993.46%88.79%89.29%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Zachary Svajda (Visit)
Prediction 16.36%6.11fair odd
EV +39.04%
Edge +4.59%
Kelly +5.21%
Growth +2.03%
assuming max odds 8.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.27%16.19%16.43%19.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.825.778.5020.00%17.18%17.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 83.64%; Zachary Svajda (Visit): 16.36%. For Zachary Svajda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.11. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -9.67%E -8.95%K -120.83%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +39.04%E +4.59%K +5.21%G +2.03% | 4.4% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +14.51%E +2.07%K +2.42%G +0.351% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +10.42%E +1.54%K +1.81%G +0.189% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +10.42%E +1.54%K +1.81%G +0.189% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -8.83%E -8.10%K -98.11%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV +10.42%E +1.54%K +1.81%G +0.189% | 6.6% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +6.33%E +0.973%K +1.15%G +0.073% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +6.33%E +0.973%K +1.15%G +0.073% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -8.83%E -8.10%K -98.11%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV +6.33%E +0.973%K +1.15%G +0.073% | 7.1% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -9.67%E -8.95%K -120.83%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +6.33%E +0.973%K +1.15%G +0.073% | 8.0% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.68%EV -10.50%E -9.82%K -150.04%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.32%EV +4.69%E +0.733%K +0.869%G +0.041% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.68%EV -10.50%E -9.82%K -150.04%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.32%EV +4.69%E +0.733%K +0.869%G +0.041% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV +3.06%E +0.485%K +0.577%G +0.018% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.98%EV +3.06%E +0.485%K +0.577%G +0.018% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV +2.24%E +0.358%K +0.426%G +0.010% | 6.9% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -0.216%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -0.216%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -0.216%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 08:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.57%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.43%EV -2.67%E -0.449%K -0.539%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-07-04 10:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.18%EV -8.83%E -8.10%K -98.11%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.99%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000% | 5.77I 17.33%NM 16.01%EV -5.61%E -0.973%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.31%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000% | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.69%EV -6.10%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.97%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.03%EV -6.76%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-04 08:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV -6.76%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 07:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.07%EV -9.67%E -8.95%K -120.83%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.93%EV -6.76%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -8.39%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-04 09:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 10:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.65%E -4.08%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-04 09:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.65%E -4.08%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-04 08:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.65%E -4.08%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-04 09:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 10:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -11.67%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-04 09:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -11.67%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-04 09:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -11.67%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 19:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.72%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000% | 5.36I 18.66%NM 17.28%EV -12.32%E -2.30%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -13.30%E -2.51%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 10:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -2.98%E -2.56%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 09:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -2.98%E -2.56%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 10:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 10:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.55%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 10:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -2.98%E -2.56%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -16.57%E -3.25%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 09:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.99%EV -0.466%E -0.392%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 19.01%EV -17.06%E -3.37%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-03 21:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -1.30%E -1.10%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -17.39%E -3.44%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-04 09:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 09:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 08:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-02 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-02 18:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 08:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 10:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.71% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-07-04 10:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.3% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.66% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34% | 1.8% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.08% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92% | 2.3% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.08% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92% | 2.3% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.59% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.41% | 4.7% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |