L’École des cotes

Alex de Minaur v Zachary Svajda

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-04 10:11 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

65 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alex de Minaur (Local)

Prévision 83.64%1.20cote équitable
EV -0.466%
Avantage -0.392%
Kelly -2.45%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.19

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
80.99%83.81%83.57%88.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.071.131.121.1993.46%88.79%89.29%84.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Zachary Svajda (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.36%6.11cote équitable
EV +39.04%
Avantage +4.59%
Kelly +5.21%
Croissance +2.03%

avec la cote maximale 8.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.27%16.19%16.43%19.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.005.825.778.5020.00%17.18%17.33%11.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
BoyleSports1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -9.67%E -8.95%K -120.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +39.04%E +4.59%K +5.21%G +2.03%4.4%2026-07-04 10:10
Betway1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +14.51%E +2.07%K +2.42%G +0.351%5.2%2026-07-04 10:10
Unibet (SE)1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +10.42%E +1.54%K +1.81%G +0.189%5.7%2026-07-04 10:10
Svenska Spel1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +10.42%E +1.54%K +1.81%G +0.189%5.7%2026-07-04 10:10
Grosvenor1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -8.83%E -8.10%K -98.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV +10.42%E +1.54%K +1.81%G +0.189%6.6%2026-07-04 10:10
888sport (SE)1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +6.33%E +0.973%K +1.15%G +0.073%6.3%2026-07-04 10:10
Mr Green (SE)1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +6.33%E +0.973%K +1.15%G +0.073%6.3%2026-07-04 10:10
PointsBet (AU)1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -8.83%E -8.10%K -98.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV +6.33%E +0.973%K +1.15%G +0.073%7.1%2026-07-04 10:10
Sky Bet1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -9.67%E -8.95%K -120.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +6.33%E +0.973%K +1.15%G +0.073%8.0%2026-07-04 10:10
PMU (FR)1.07I 93.46%NM 85.68%EV -10.50%E -9.82%K -150.04%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.32%EV +4.69%E +0.733%K +0.869%G +0.041%9.1%2026-07-04 10:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.07I 93.46%NM 85.68%EV -10.50%E -9.82%K -150.04%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.32%EV +4.69%E +0.733%K +0.869%G +0.041%9.1%2026-07-04 10:10
Fanatics1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV +3.06%E +0.485%K +0.577%G +0.018%5.2%2026-07-04 10:10
LeoVegas1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.98%EV +3.06%E +0.485%K +0.577%G +0.018%6.0%2026-07-04 10:10
TAB1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV +2.24%E +0.358%K +0.426%G +0.010%6.9%2026-07-04 10:10
Unibet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -0.216%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 10:10
Casumo1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -0.216%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 10:10
Bally Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 84.72%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -0.216%E -0.035%K -0.042%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 10:10
SportsBet1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 08:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 10:10
Hard Rock Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 10:10
888sport1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 10:10
theScore Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 10:10
Caesars1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 10:10
Tipico (DE)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 10:10
Winamax (DE)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 10:10
Bet Victor1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.85%E -0.309%K -0.370%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 10:10
Pinnacle1.17I 85.47%NM 83.57%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.43%EV -2.67%E -0.449%K -0.539%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-04 10:09
Unibet (NL)1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 10:10
betPARX1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 10:10
ATG (SE)1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 10:10
TABtouch1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 10:10
Fliff1.09I 91.74%NM 84.18%EV -8.83%E -8.10%K -98.11%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 10:10
NordicBet1.10I 90.91%NM 83.99%EV -7.99%E -7.27%K -79.94%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.01%EV -5.61%E -0.973%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-04 10:10
Coral1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 10:10
Virgin Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-04 10:10
LiveScore Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-04 10:10
DraftKings1.15I 86.96%NM 83.31%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000%5.74I 17.42%NM 16.69%EV -6.10%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-04 10:10
Coolbet1.17I 85.47%NM 82.97%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.03%EV -6.76%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-04 08:35
Unibet (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV -6.76%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 07:15
Winamax (FR)1.08I 92.59%NM 84.07%EV -9.67%E -8.95%K -120.83%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.93%EV -6.76%E -1.19%K -1.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-04 10:10
NetBet (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -5.48%E -4.85%K -42.19%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -8.39%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 09:55
Bovada1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 10:09
William Hill1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.65%E -4.08%K -33.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-04 09:30
BetUS1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.65%E -4.08%K -33.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-04 08:00
Everygame1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.65%E -4.08%K -33.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-04 09:00
Paddy Power1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-04 10:09
ReBet1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -11.67%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 09:00
Codere (IT)1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -11.67%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 09:00
BetRivers1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -11.67%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-03 19:30
Betsson1.12I 89.29%NM 82.72%EV -6.32%E -5.64%K -52.68%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.28%EV -12.32%E -2.30%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-04 10:10
FanDuel1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -13.30%E -2.51%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-04 10:09
Marathon Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -2.98%E -2.56%K -18.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 09:50
MyBookie.ag1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -2.98%E -2.56%K -18.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 10:04
Betr (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 10:00
Betclic (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 82.55%EV -7.16%E -6.45%K -65.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-04 10:09
BetAnything1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -2.98%E -2.56%K -18.60%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -16.57%E -3.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 09:15
GTbets1.19I 84.03%NM 80.99%EV -0.466%E -0.392%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 19.01%EV -17.06%E -3.37%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-03 21:29
1xBet1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -1.30%E -1.10%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -17.39%E -3.44%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-04 09:50
betfred_uk1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 09:50
PlayUp1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-04 08:55
Neds1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-02 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.14%E -1.83%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-02 18:40
Dabble (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-04 08:50
BetMGM1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.81%E -3.31%K -25.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-04 10:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.12I 89.29%NM 88.71%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%0.6%2026-07-04 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-07-04 10:00
Smarkets1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65%1.3%2026-07-04 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 84.66%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.8%2026-07-04 10:10
Matchbook1.11I 90.09%NM 88.08%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92%2.3%2026-07-04 10:10
ProphetX1.11I 90.09%NM 88.08%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92%2.3%2026-07-04 10:10
Novig1.09I 91.74%NM 87.59%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.41%4.7%2026-07-04 10:10