Language:English
Ugo Humbert v Andres Martin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ugo Humbert (Local)
Prediction 77.82%1.29fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -10.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.45%77.70%77.90%78.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2584.75%82.11%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Andres Martin (Visit)
Prediction 22.18%4.51fair odd
EV +1.82%
Edge +0.395%
Kelly +0.506%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 4.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.13%22.30%22.10%24.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.234.304.5926.67%23.67%23.26%21.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ugo Humbert (Local): 77.82%; Andres Martin (Visit): 22.18%. For Andres Martin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.51. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.87%EV -4.28%E -3.48%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 21.13%EV +1.82%E +0.395%K +0.506%G +0.009% | 3.1% | 2026-07-28 14:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV +0.928%E +0.204%K +0.261%G +0.002% | 3.9% | 2026-07-28 14:48 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.75%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.25%EV +0.263%E +0.058%K +0.075%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-28 14:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.75%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.25%EV +0.263%E +0.058%K +0.075%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-28 14:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.53%EV -4.28%E -3.48%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.47%EV -0.181%E -0.040%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-28 14:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -1.29%E -0.290%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-28 14:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -2.40%E -0.545%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-28 14:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.16%EV -5.84%E -4.83%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -3.95%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-28 14:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -3.95%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-28 14:56 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -3.95%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-28 14:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -3.95%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-28 14:56 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.51%E -2.83%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-28 14:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.28%E -3.48%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-28 14:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 13:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 14:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 12:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.84%E -4.83%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-28 14:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.84%E -4.83%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-28 14:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.42%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -4.62%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-28 14:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.51%E -2.83%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -5.73%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-28 14:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.73%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-28 06:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.73%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-28 14:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.73%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-28 14:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -5.73%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-28 12:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-28 13:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-28 14:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-28 13:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.84%E -4.83%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.84%E -4.83%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 14:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 14:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.84%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.22%EV -4.28%E -3.48%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.78%EV -7.50%E -1.80%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-28 08:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.05%E -2.21%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-28 12:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -9.05%E -2.21%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-28 06:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -10.16%E -2.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 14:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -10.16%E -2.51%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 14:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.73%E -2.18%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 08:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.51%E -2.83%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 14:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.51%E -2.83%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 14:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 13:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 08:48 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 13:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-28 13:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.52%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.27%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-28 12:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -2.73%E -2.18%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -14.60%E -3.79%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 09:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -16.82%E -4.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 14:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -16.82%E -4.48%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 14:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-07-28 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-07-28 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-07-28 14:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-07-28 14:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.07% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.93% | 2.4% | 2026-07-28 14:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.08% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.92% | 2.8% | 2026-07-28 14:59 |
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