Language:English
Rafael Jodar v Kei Nishikori
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Jodar (Local)
Prediction 81.30%1.23fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -3.45%
Kelly -22.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.37%81.26%81.17%83.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.161.161.1888.50%86.04%86.21%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kei Nishikori (Visit)
Prediction 18.70%5.35fair odd
EV +8.67%
Edge +1.49%
Kelly +1.80%
Growth +0.156%
assuming max odds 5.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.76%18.74%18.83%20.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.035.005.8122.22%19.89%20.00%17.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Jodar (Local): 81.30%; Kei Nishikori (Visit): 18.70%. For Kei Nishikori (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.35. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.67%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.24%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.81I 17.21%NM 16.76%EV +8.67%E +1.49%K +1.80%G +0.156% | 2.7% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.39%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +2.87%E +0.522%K +0.638%G +0.018% | 5.1% | 2026-07-29 23:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +2.87%E +0.522%K +0.638%G +0.018% | 5.9% | 2026-07-29 19:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.03%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 17.97%EV -0.124%E -0.023%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.03%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 17.97%EV -0.124%E -0.023%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.94%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.31I 18.83%NM 18.06%EV -0.685%E -0.129%K -0.159%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -0.872%E -0.164%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-29 23:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.39%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -0.872%E -0.164%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 23:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -1.81%E -0.344%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.39%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -1.81%E -0.344%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-30 00:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.39%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -1.81%E -0.344%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.39%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 23:33 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -8.13%E -7.20%K -62.58%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -2.74%E -0.527%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 23:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.40%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.60%EV -4.24%E -0.828%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-29 23:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -4.61%E -0.904%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-29 22:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -4.61%E -0.904%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-29 22:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 23:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 19:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 20:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 22:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 23:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 19:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-29 19:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-29 19:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.30%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 23:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.30%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 23:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.32%E -6.42%K -52.30%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-30 00:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -6.51%E -5.66%K -43.39%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -8.35%E -1.70%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -9.29%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 19:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.16%E -2.35%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 21:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -11.16%E -2.35%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 23:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -11.16%E -2.35%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-29 22:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -11.16%E -2.35%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-29 23:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -11.16%E -2.35%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-29 23:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -13.96%E -3.04%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-29 19:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.07%E -3.45%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -13.96%E -3.04%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-29 19:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -5.70%E -4.91%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -13.96%E -3.04%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-29 22:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 18:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 23:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -4.88%E -4.17%K -28.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -15.83%E -3.52%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-29 18:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-07-30 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-07-30 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-07-30 00:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.66% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34% | 1.8% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.21% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.79% | 1.8% | 2026-07-29 23:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.40% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.60% | 2.5% | 2026-07-30 00:00 |
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