Language:English
Marcos Giron v Cruz Hewitt
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marcos Giron (Local)
Prediction 82.65%1.21fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -13.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.58%82.70%82.89%88.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.141.141.1893.46%87.73%87.72%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cruz Hewitt (Visit)
Prediction 17.35%5.76fair odd
EV +38.79%
Edge +4.85%
Kelly +5.54%
Growth +2.15%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.80%17.30%17.11%20.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.615.608.0021.74%17.82%17.86%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marcos Giron (Local): 82.65%; Cruz Hewitt (Visit): 17.35%. For Cruz Hewitt (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.76. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +38.79%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -11.56%E -10.81%K -165.19%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +38.79%E +4.85%K +5.54%G +2.15% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 05:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -9.08%E -8.26%K -90.84%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +30.11%E +4.02%K +4.63%G +1.40% | 4.2% | 2026-07-28 16:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -10.74%E -9.94%K -134.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +21.44%E +3.06%K +3.57%G +0.766% | 6.9% | 2026-07-28 18:13 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.60%E -5.84%K -50.80%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +4.09%E +0.682%K +0.818%G +0.033% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 17:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.43%E -6.63%K -61.92%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +4.09%E +0.682%K +0.818%G +0.033% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.43%E -6.63%K -61.92%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +4.09%E +0.682%K +0.818%G +0.033% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -8.26%E -7.44%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +4.09%E +0.682%K +0.818%G +0.033% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 17:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -8.26%E -7.44%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +4.09%E +0.682%K +0.818%G +0.033% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 17:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -4.95%E -4.31%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV +2.36%E +0.400%K +0.481%G +0.011% | 3.9% | 2026-07-28 17:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +0.622%E +0.107%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +0.622%E +0.107%K +0.130%G +0.001% | 5.0% | 2026-07-28 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.245%E -0.043%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.28%EV -4.95%E -4.31%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.73I 17.45%NM 16.72%EV -0.592%E -0.103%K -0.125%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 18:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -7.43%E -6.63%K -61.92%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -1.11%E -0.195%K -0.237%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 17:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.99%EV -4.12%E -3.56%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 5.66I 17.67%NM 17.01%EV -1.81%E -0.319%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-28 18:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.99%EV -4.12%E -3.56%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 5.66I 17.67%NM 17.01%EV -1.81%E -0.319%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-28 18:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.85%E -0.508%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 17:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.85%E -0.508%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.85%E -0.508%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.85%E -0.508%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -6.60%E -5.84%K -50.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -2.85%E -0.508%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -6.60%E -5.84%K -50.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -2.85%E -0.508%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.95%E -4.31%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.58%E -0.833%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.58%E -0.833%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.58%E -0.833%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-28 17:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.60%E -5.84%K -50.80%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.58%E -0.833%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-28 17:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.43%E -6.63%K -61.92%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.58%E -0.833%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.43%E -6.63%K -61.92%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.58%E -0.833%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-28 17:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.48%EV -4.12%E -3.56%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 5.46I 18.32%NM 17.52%EV -5.28%E -0.966%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-28 18:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.30%E -2.82%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -8.92%E -1.70%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.95%E -4.31%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.92%E -1.70%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.30%E -2.82%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -11.52%E -2.26%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -5.78%E -5.07%K -41.27%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -11.52%E -2.26%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-28 18:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.13%EV -3.30%E -2.82%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 5.03I 19.88%NM 18.87%EV -12.74%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-28 18:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.30%E -2.82%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.26%E -2.65%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-28 17:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.30%E -2.82%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.26%E -2.65%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-28 17:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.12%E -3.56%K -25.78%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -13.26%E -2.65%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-28 17:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.95%E -4.31%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.26%E -2.65%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 17:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.95%E -4.31%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.26%E -2.65%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 17:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.60%E -5.84%K -50.80%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.26%E -2.65%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-28 18:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.60%E -5.84%K -50.80%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.26%E -2.65%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-28 18:12 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -4.95%E -4.31%K -33.01%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -14.99%E -3.06%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-28 18:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -2.47%E -2.09%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -20.20%E -4.39%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-28 17:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -2.47%E -2.09%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -20.20%E -4.39%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-28 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-07-28 18:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-07-28 18:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-07-28 18:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.0% | 2026-07-28 18:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.98% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.02% | 1.3% | 2026-07-28 18:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88% | 1.6% | 2026-07-28 18:14 |
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