The School of Odds

Marcos Giron v Cruz Hewitt

2026-07-28 15:00 UTC — ATP Washington Open

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Marcos Giron (Local)

Prediction 89.65%1.12fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -3.81%
Kelly -58.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.62%89.67%89.56%90.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.051.061.061.0795.24%94.34%94.34%93.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cruz Hewitt (Visit)

Prediction 10.35%9.66fair odd
EV +3.54%
Edge +0.354%
Kelly +0.393%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.50%10.33%10.44%13.38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.808.718.6010.0014.71%11.48%11.63%10.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.97%E -4.69%K -82.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +3.54%E +0.354%K +0.393%G +0.014%4.3%2026-07-27 05:39
888sport1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.87%E -5.59%K -117.43%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +3.54%E +0.354%K +0.393%G +0.014%5.2%2026-07-27 05:40
PointsBet (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.97%E -4.69%K -82.92%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -1.64%E -0.173%K -0.193%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-27 05:44
DraftKings1.07I 93.46%NM 89.16%EV -4.08%E -3.81%K -58.26%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.84%EV -8.89%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 05:50
Bovada1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -4.08%E -3.81%K -58.26%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -9.41%E -1.07%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-27 05:40
Fanatics1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.08%E -3.81%K -58.26%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -9.92%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-27 05:50
Betr (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.97%E -4.69%K -82.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -11.99%E -1.41%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-27 05:44
theScore Bet1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.97%E -4.69%K -82.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -11.99%E -1.41%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-27 05:40
PlayUp1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.97%E -4.69%K -82.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -11.99%E -1.41%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-27 06:10
SportsBet1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.87%E -5.59%K -117.43%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -11.99%E -1.41%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-27 05:45
TAB1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.97%E -4.69%K -82.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.17%E -2.15%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 07:14
ReBet1.05I 95.24%NM 86.62%EV -5.87%E -5.59%K -117.43%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.38%EV -29.59%E -4.35%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-27 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 89.76%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.24%6.1%2026-07-27 06:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.05I 95.24%NM 89.76%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.24%6.1%2026-07-27 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 89.76%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.24%6.1%2026-07-27 06:25
ProphetX1.02I 98.04%NM 88.30%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.70%11.0%2026-07-27 06:25