Language:English
Zachary Svajda v Arthur Gea
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Zachary Svajda (Local)
Prediction 56.93%1.76fair odd
EV +8.74%
Edge +4.57%
Kelly +9.60%
Growth +0.839%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%56.55%56.85%59.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.681.9162.50%59.55%59.52%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Gea (Visit)
Prediction 43.07%2.32fair odd
EV +1.22%
Edge +0.517%
Kelly +0.901%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.92%43.45%43.15%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.192.202.3552.36%45.74%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zachary Svajda (Local): 56.93%; Arthur Gea (Visit): 43.07%. For Zachary Svajda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +8.74%E +4.57%K +9.60%G +0.839% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -17.74%E -9.29%K -19.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 11:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +0.765%E +0.432%K +0.994%G +0.008% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -13.86%E -6.93%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 04:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.31%EV -1.51%E -0.874%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.69%EV -3.95%E -1.77%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-03 22:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.51%E -0.874%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-03 19:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61%EV -1.37%E -0.598%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-09-03 22:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -2.23%E -0.982%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.38%E -1.97%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 19:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -6.11%E -2.80%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-03 20:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 20:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.69%E -4.10%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 22:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.79%E -2.24%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.40%E -3.44%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.38%E -1.97%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 21:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -1.37%E -0.598%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -1.37%E -0.598%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 19:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 20:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 21:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 19:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 19:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 19:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.74%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -5.68%E -2.59%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-03 19:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-03 19:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -5.50%E -3.31%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +1.22%E +0.517%K +0.901%G +0.011% | 3.2% | 2026-09-03 21:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -0.938%E -0.408%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 22:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -4.38%E -1.97%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 22:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 22:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 42.97%EV -5.68%E -2.59%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 42.97%EV -5.68%E -2.59%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.40%E -3.44%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.20%E -4.42%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.20%E -4.42%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 22:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 21:46 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -8.91%E -5.57%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -0.507%E -0.220%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 0.5% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 0.9% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 0.9% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 0.9% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04% | 2.1% | 2026-09-03 22:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04% | 2.1% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14% | 2.3% | 2026-09-03 22:25 |