Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Zachary Svajda v Arthur Gea

Início: 2026-09-03 22:26 UTC

Final: Zachary Svajda 1–3 Arthur Gea

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

60 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Zachary Svajda (Local)

Previsão 56.93%1.76odd justa
EV +8.74%
Vantagem +4.57%
Kelly +9.60%
Crescimento +0.839%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.91

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.00%56.55%56.85%59.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.601.681.681.9162.50%59.55%59.52%52.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arthur Gea (Visitante)

Previsão 43.07%2.32odd justa
EV +1.22%
Vantagem +0.517%
Kelly +0.901%
Crescimento +0.011%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.92%43.45%43.15%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.912.192.202.3552.36%45.74%45.45%42.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Zachary Svajda (Local): 56.93%; Arthur Gea (Visitante): 43.07%. Para Zachary Svajda (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.76. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 1.91, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +8.74%.

Odds das casas de apostas (60 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +8.74%E +4.57%K +9.60%G +0.839%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -17.74%E -9.29%K -19.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 11:00
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +0.765%E +0.432%K +0.994%G +0.008%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -13.86%E -6.93%K -13.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 04:30
GTbets🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.31%EV -1.51%E -0.874%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.69%EV -3.95%E -1.77%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-03 22:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.51%E -0.874%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 19:25
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61%EV -1.37%E -0.598%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-03 22:00
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -2.23%E -0.982%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-03 22:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-03 22:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.38%E -1.97%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 22:25
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 19:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 22:24
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -6.11%E -2.80%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 20:55
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 20:55
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.69%E -4.10%K -7.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 22:25
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.22%E -1.89%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 22:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.79%E -2.24%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.40%E -3.44%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 22:20
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.38%E -1.97%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 22:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 22:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 21:45
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -4.36%E -2.59%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -6.97%E -3.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -1.37%E -0.598%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-03 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -1.37%E -0.598%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-03 22:24
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 19:15
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 20:05
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 21:45
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 22:24
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 19:15
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.74%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -5.68%E -2.59%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 22:20
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 19:15
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.93%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -5.50%E -3.31%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -9.55%E -4.55%K -8.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 22:20
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +1.22%E +0.517%K +0.901%G +0.011%3.2%2026-09-03 21:58
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -0.938%E -0.408%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 22:00
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 22:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -4.38%E -1.97%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 22:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 22:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 22:25
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 22:24
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.97%EV -5.68%E -2.59%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 22:25
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.97%EV -5.68%E -2.59%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 22:20
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.07%E -3.68%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.40%E -3.44%K -6.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 22:24
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.20%E -4.42%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -7.20%E -4.42%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.24%E -2.38%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 22:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.09%E -1.37%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 21:46
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -8.91%E -5.57%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -0.507%E -0.220%K -0.387%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 22:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-09-03 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%0.9%2026-09-03 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%0.9%2026-09-03 22:25
Matchbook◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%0.9%2026-09-03 22:25
ProphetX◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-09-03 22:25
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%2.1%2026-09-03 22:20
Novig◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%2.1%2026-09-03 22:25
Smarkets◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%2.3%2026-09-03 22:25