Language:English
Wu Yibing v Carlos Alcaraz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Wu Yibing (Local)
Prediction 8.74%11.44fair odd
EV +13.67%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.156%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.47%8.81%8.71%10.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.5910.2513.0011.11%9.44%9.76%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlos Alcaraz (Visit)
Prediction 91.26%1.10fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -18.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.55%91.19%91.29%92.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.051.051.0898.04%95.53%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wu Yibing (Local): 8.74%; Carlos Alcaraz (Visit): 91.26%. For Wu Yibing (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.44. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.67%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +13.67%E +1.05%K +1.14%G +0.156% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 12.61I 7.93%NM 7.69%EV +10.26%E +0.813%K +0.883%G +0.091% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.31%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +4.92%E +0.410%K +0.448%G +0.022% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 06:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +4.92%E +0.410%K +0.448%G +0.022% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +4.92%E +0.410%K +0.448%G +0.022% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 14:28 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +4.92%E +0.410%K +0.448%G +0.022% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +4.92%E +0.410%K +0.448%G +0.022% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.92%E -6.78%K -345.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +4.92%E +0.410%K +0.448%G +0.022% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.92%E -6.78%K -345.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 06:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.44%EV +0.551%E +0.048%K +0.052%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.56%EV -3.27%E -3.08%K -54.47%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 05:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.37%EV +0.551%E +0.048%K +0.052%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.63%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 11.30I 8.85%NM 8.50%EV -1.20%E -0.106%K -0.116%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.27%E -3.08%K -54.47%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 06:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 12:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 00:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 00:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 21:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -3.82%E -0.347%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.01%E -5.83%K -200.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.82%EV -6.01%E -0.559%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.18%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 10.70I 9.35%NM 8.86%EV -6.44%E -0.602%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.14%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 10.60I 9.43%NM 8.93%EV -7.32%E -0.690%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.07%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:44 |
| ReBet🎯 | 10.60I 9.43%NM 8.93%EV -7.32%E -0.690%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.07%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 10.52I 9.51%NM 9.31%EV -8.02%E -0.762%K -0.842%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 90.69%EV -1.44%E -1.34%K -18.04%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -8.19%E -0.780%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 12:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.29%EV -10.38%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.71%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 06:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -10.38%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.27%E -3.08%K -54.47%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 13:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.27%E -3.08%K -54.47%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 15:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 14:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 07:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 07:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 13:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 13:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -12.56%E -1.26%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -6.92%E -6.78%K -345.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-04 06:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV -13.00%E -1.31%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 00:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.59%EV -14.31%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.41%EV -5.09%E -4.90%K -127.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 21:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.94%E -1.78%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 09:18 |
| BetUS🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -16.94%E -1.78%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 01:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -19.12%E -2.07%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 13:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -21.31%E -2.37%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.18%E -3.98%K -83.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 13:38 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 23:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.90% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.90% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.90% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.90% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| Novig◎ | 11.76I 8.50%NM 8.41% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.59% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.40% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 08:06 |
| Smarkets◎ | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.28% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.72% | 1.7% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |