Idioma:Español
Valentin Vacherot v Kamil Majchrzak
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Valentin Vacherot (Local)
Predicción 54.28%1.84momio equitativo
EV -1.76%
Ventaja -0.970%
Kelly -2.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.81
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.25%54.33%54.35%55.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.711.751.751.8158.48%57.12%57.14%55.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Kamil Majchrzak (Visitante)
Predicción 45.72%2.19momio equitativo
EV -0.784%
Ventaja -0.361%
Kelly -0.670%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.17
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.22%45.67%45.65%47.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.972.072.072.1750.76%48.21%48.31%46.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Valentin Vacherot (Local): 54.28%; Kamil Majchrzak (Visitante): 45.72%. Para Kamil Majchrzak (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.19. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.17, con un valor esperado de -0.784%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -1.76%E -0.970%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -3.07%E -1.45%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-09-02 21:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -2.30%E -1.28%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -9.93%E -5.04%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -2.84%E -1.59%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 21:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -2.84%E -1.59%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 21:31 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.48%EV -3.38%E -1.90%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.52%EV -2.61%E -1.23%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-02 22:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -3.38%E -1.90%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 21:36 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -3.38%E -1.90%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -5.81%E -2.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 21:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-02 22:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 21:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.56%E -4.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-02 22:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.56%E -4.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.93%E -2.22%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.56%E -4.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-02 22:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -3.53%E -1.67%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.47%E -2.54%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.36%E -2.59%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.01%E -2.86%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.01%E -2.86%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 21:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -5.01%E -2.86%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.44%E -2.13%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 21:36 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -5.01%E -2.86%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.44%E -2.13%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 21:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.01%E -2.86%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 21:31 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.01%E -2.86%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 22:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -5.56%E -3.19%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.07%E -1.45%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -5.56%E -3.19%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -4.90%E -2.36%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 21:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.56%E -3.19%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 22:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.56%E -3.19%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.56%E -3.19%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 05:26 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -1.70%E -0.790%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 04:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -2.16%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-02 18:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.07%E -1.45%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 18:23 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 21:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 18:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 18:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 21:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 21:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 19:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 21:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.98%E -1.90%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -5.81%E -2.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -5.81%E -2.82%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.56%E -4.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.10%E -3.53%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.56%E -4.28%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-02 21:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -0.784%E -0.361%K -0.670%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-02 22:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -4.90%E -2.36%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 21:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -1.70%E -0.790%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 15:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.27%E -3.06%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-02 21:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -7.64%E -3.78%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.73% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.27% | 0.1% | 2026-09-02 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13% | 0.4% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.25% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.75% | 0.7% | 2026-09-02 22:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.0% | 2026-09-02 22:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.16% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.84% | 1.5% | 2026-09-02 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82% | 2.0% | 2026-09-02 22:55 |