Language:English
Valentin Vacherot v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valentin Vacherot (Local)
Prediction 37.93%2.64fair odd
EV +4.32%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +2.47%
Growth +0.107%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%37.80%37.97%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.492.492.7542.02%40.13%40.24%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 62.07%1.61fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%62.20%62.03%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.541.5769.44%65.19%64.94%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valentin Vacherot (Local): 37.93%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 62.07%. For Valentin Vacherot (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +4.32%E +1.57%K +2.47%G +0.107% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -10.63%E -7.38%K -24.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.37%E -0.527%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.76%E -5.96%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -2.13%E -0.825%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -2.13%E -0.825%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.92%EV -2.51%E -0.976%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.08%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.18%E -2.04%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.68%EV -4.03%E -1.59%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -4.03%E -1.59%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.38%EV -4.03%E -1.59%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.62%EV -6.28%E -4.16%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV -4.40%E -1.75%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -4.40%E -1.75%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.40%E -1.75%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.18%E -2.04%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 10:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 10:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 10:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 10:46 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -5.54%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -6.30%E -2.55%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 09:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 09:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 09:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -7.82%E -3.22%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -7.82%E -3.22%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -7.82%E -3.22%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.96%E -3.73%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 09:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.96%E -3.73%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 09:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26% | 0.4% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.83% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.17% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65% | 1.8% | 2026-09-04 01:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |