Idioma:Español
Valentin Vacherot v Frances Tiafoe
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Valentin Vacherot (Local)
Predicción 37.93%2.64momio equitativo
EV +4.32%
Ventaja +1.57%
Kelly +2.47%
Crecimiento +0.107%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.37%37.80%37.97%39.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.382.492.492.7542.02%40.13%40.24%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visitante)
Predicción 62.07%1.61momio equitativo
EV -2.56%
Ventaja -1.63%
Kelly -4.49%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.25%62.20%62.03%65.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.531.541.5769.44%65.19%64.94%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Valentin Vacherot (Local): 37.93%; Frances Tiafoe (Visitante): 62.07%. Para Valentin Vacherot (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.64. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.32%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +4.32%E +1.57%K +2.47%G +0.107% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -10.63%E -7.38%K -24.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.37%E -0.527%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.76%E -5.96%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 08:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -2.13%E -0.825%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -2.13%E -0.825%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.92%EV -2.51%E -0.976%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.08%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.18%E -2.04%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.68%EV -4.03%E -1.59%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 11:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -4.03%E -1.59%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.38%EV -4.03%E -1.59%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.62%EV -6.28%E -4.16%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV -4.40%E -1.75%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -4.40%E -1.75%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.40%E -1.75%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.18%E -2.04%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 10:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 12:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 10:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 10:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 10:46 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.16%E -2.07%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 12:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -5.54%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -5.92%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -6.30%E -2.55%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 13:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 09:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.80%E -2.45%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 09:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 09:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 13:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.06%E -2.88%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -7.82%E -3.22%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -7.82%E -3.22%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 10:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -7.82%E -3.22%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.80%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.96%E -3.73%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 09:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.96%E -3.73%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.04%E -3.29%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 09:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26% | 0.4% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.83% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.17% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65% | 1.8% | 2026-09-04 01:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01% | 2.4% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |