StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz

Matchstart: 2026-09-06 18:07 UTC

Slutresultat: Tommy Paul 0–3 Carlos Alcaraz

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

65 spelbolag (21 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Tommy Paul (Hemma)

Prognos 20.70%4.83rättvist odds
EV +3.50%
Fördel +0.701%
Kelly +0.876%
Tillväxt +0.031%

med antagandet om högsta odds 5.00

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
18.57%20.74%20.63%22.51%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
4.204.574.605.0023.81%21.87%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Carlos Alcaraz (Borta)

Prognos 79.30%1.26rättvist odds
EV -3.25%
Fördel -2.67%
Kelly -14.80%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.22

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
77.49%79.26%79.37%81.43%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.141.201.201.2287.72%83.42%83.33%81.97%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Tommy Paul (Hemma): 20.70%; Carlos Alcaraz (Borta): 79.30%. För Tommy Paul (Hemma) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 4.83. 2 spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån; bästa odds var 5.00, motsvarande ett positivt väntevärde på +3.50%.

Spelbolagsodds (65 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaMarginalUppdaterat
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +3.50%E +0.701%K +0.876%G +0.031%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.60%E -8.42%K -68.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 14:45
Pinnacle🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 20.10%EV +0.399%E +0.082%K +0.104%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.90%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-06 17:55
theScore Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -0.636%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 17:40
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-06 13:20
FanDuel🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 17:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 17:35
SportsBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 17:51
TAB🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 16:15
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 17:50
ReBet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
TABtouch🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
Casumo🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
Unibet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
BetRivers🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
Grosvenor🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:40
Bally Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
betPARX🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
Svenska Spel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 17:35
MyBookie.ag🎯4.67I 21.41%NM 20.31%EV -3.33%E -0.712%K -0.907%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.69%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.65%EV -3.74%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.35%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-06 17:20
LowVig.ag🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-06 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 17:51
Betclic (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 17:50
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 13:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:06
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -5.81%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 17:55
Fliff🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -5.81%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:35
1xBet🎯4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -6.02%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 17:51
GTbets🎯4.52I 22.12%NM 20.98%EV -6.43%E -1.42%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.02%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 13:19
Bovada🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 13:19
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 12:35
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 17:45
BetUS🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 13:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 14:55
PMU (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 17:35
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 14:55
NetBet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 17:05
BetAnything🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -7.88%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 17:55
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 17:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 17:40
Betsson🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 17:50
PlayUp🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 17:50
Caesars🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 14:48
Fanatics🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -9.95%E -2.29%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 17:45
LeoVegas🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -9.95%E -2.29%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 17:50
betfred_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -10.37%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 13:20
betano_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -10.37%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 17:10
DraftKings🎯4.26I 23.47%NM 22.26%EV -11.81%E -2.77%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.74%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 13:15
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 13:15
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 13:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 13:10
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 13:15
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (7)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
ProphetX◎5.05I 19.80%NM 19.71%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.29%0.4%2026-09-06 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87%0.5%2026-09-06 17:56
Matchbook◎5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87%0.5%2026-09-06 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57%0.9%2026-09-06 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57%0.9%2026-09-06 17:51
Novig◎4.88I 20.49%NM 20.13%1.23I 81.30%NM 79.87%1.8%2026-09-06 17:56
Smarkets◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48%1.21I 82.64%NM 80.52%2.6%2026-09-06 17:51