Idioma:Español
Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Tommy Paul (Local)
Predicción 20.70%4.83momio equitativo
EV +3.50%
Ventaja +0.701%
Kelly +0.876%
Crecimiento +0.031%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.57%20.74%20.63%22.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.574.605.0023.81%21.87%21.74%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Carlos Alcaraz (Visitante)
Predicción 79.30%1.26momio equitativo
EV -3.25%
Ventaja -2.67%
Kelly -14.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.22
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
77.49%79.26%79.37%81.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.141.201.201.2287.72%83.42%83.33%81.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tommy Paul (Local): 20.70%; Carlos Alcaraz (Visitante): 79.30%. Para Tommy Paul (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.83. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.50%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +3.50%E +0.701%K +0.876%G +0.031% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.60%E -8.42%K -68.56%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 14:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 20.10%EV +0.399%E +0.082%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.90%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-06 17:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -0.636%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-06 13:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 17:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 16:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.31%EV -3.33%E -0.712%K -0.907%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.69%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.65%EV -3.74%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.35%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 17:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 17:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 13:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-05 23:06 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -5.81%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 17:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -5.81%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -6.02%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.52I 22.12%NM 20.98%EV -6.43%E -1.42%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.02%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 13:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 13:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 12:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 17:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 14:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 17:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -7.88%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 14:48 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -9.95%E -2.29%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 17:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -9.95%E -2.29%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -10.37%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-06 13:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -10.37%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-06 17:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.26%EV -11.81%E -2.77%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.74%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.71% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.29% | 0.4% | 2026-09-06 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 0.5% | 2026-09-06 17:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 0.5% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| Novig◎ | 4.88I 20.49%NM 20.13% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.87% | 1.8% | 2026-09-06 17:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.52% | 2.6% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |