Langue:Français
Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Tommy Paul (Local)
Prévision 20.70%4.83cote équitable
EV +3.50%
Avantage +0.701%
Kelly +0.876%
Croissance +0.031%
avec la cote maximale 5.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.57%20.74%20.63%22.51%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.204.574.605.0023.81%21.87%21.74%20.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Carlos Alcaraz (Visiteur)
Prévision 79.30%1.26cote équitable
EV -3.25%
Avantage -2.67%
Kelly -14.80%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.22
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
77.49%79.26%79.37%81.43%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.141.201.201.2287.72%83.42%83.33%81.97%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Tommy Paul (Local) : 20.70% ; Carlos Alcaraz (Visiteur) : 79.30%. Pour Tommy Paul (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.83. 2 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 5.00, soit une espérance positive de +3.50%.
Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +3.50%E +0.701%K +0.876%G +0.031% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -9.60%E -8.42%K -68.56%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 14:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 20.10%EV +0.399%E +0.082%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.90%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-06 17:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -0.636%E -0.133%K -0.167%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-06 13:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 17:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 16:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.67%E -0.352%K -0.446%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.71%E -0.576%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.31%EV -3.33%E -0.712%K -0.907%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.69%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.65%EV -3.74%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.35%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 17:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 17:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.63%E -4.73%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 13:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-05 23:06 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.78%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -5.81%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 17:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -5.81%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -6.02%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.52I 22.12%NM 20.98%EV -6.43%E -1.42%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.02%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-06 13:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 13:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 12:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 17:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 14:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.85%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.22%E -6.17%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 17:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -7.88%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.92%E -2.03%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.43%E -5.45%K -35.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 14:48 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -9.95%E -2.29%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.05%E -3.35%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 17:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -9.95%E -2.29%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -10.37%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-06 13:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -10.37%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.84%E -4.03%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-06 17:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.26%EV -11.81%E -2.77%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.74%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -13.06%E -3.11%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.25%E -2.67%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 13:15 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (7)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.71% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.29% | 0.4% | 2026-09-06 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 0.5% | 2026-09-06 17:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 0.5% | 2026-09-06 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |
| Novig◎ | 4.88I 20.49%NM 20.13% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.87% | 1.8% | 2026-09-06 17:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.52% | 2.6% | 2026-09-06 17:51 |