Language:English
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Arthur Fils
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local)
Prediction 19.01%5.26fair odd
EV +4.92%
Edge +0.891%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 5.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.29%19.21%18.83%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.025.035.5223.81%19.90%19.90%18.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Fils (Visit)
Prediction 80.99%1.23fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -9.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.78%80.79%81.17%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.171.2187.72%85.28%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local): 19.01%; Arthur Fils (Visit): 80.99%. For Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.26. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.61%EV +4.92%E +0.891%K +1.09%G +0.053% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.39%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-31 14:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV +4.54%E +0.825%K +1.01%G +0.046% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-31 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +4.54%E +0.825%K +1.01%G +0.046% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.86%E -5.96%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93%EV +2.64%E +0.488%K +0.599%G +0.016% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.07%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-31 14:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93%EV +2.64%E +0.488%K +0.599%G +0.016% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.07%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-31 14:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +2.64%E +0.488%K +0.599%G +0.016% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.33I 18.76%NM 18.50%EV +1.31%E +0.245%K +0.302%G +0.004% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.50%EV -2.00%E -1.65%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 1.4% | 2026-08-31 13:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -0.215%E -0.041%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 14:28 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -0.215%E -0.041%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 14:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -1.17%E -0.224%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-31 13:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -1.17%E -0.224%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-31 13:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -1.17%E -0.224%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.86%E -5.96%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 13:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 13:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 14:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 14:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -4.02%E -0.795%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -4.02%E -0.795%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 10:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 13:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 14:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.86%E -5.96%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.86%E -5.96%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.67%E -6.73%K -54.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.67%E -6.73%K -54.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -6.87%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -8.77%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.72%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.72%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -10.67%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -11.62%E -2.50%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -3.62%E -3.04%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.38%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.62%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.38%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.62%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -12.57%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.47%E -3.22%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 18:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -15.42%E -3.47%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -20.17%E -4.80%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 11:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 5.71I 17.51%NM 17.37% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.63% | 0.8% | 2026-08-31 14:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 1.0% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 1.4% | 2026-08-31 14:50 |