Idioma:Español
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Arthur Fils
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local)
Predicción 19.01%5.26momio equitativo
EV +4.92%
Ventaja +0.891%
Kelly +1.09%
Crecimiento +0.053%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.52
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.29%19.21%18.83%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.205.025.035.5223.81%19.90%19.90%18.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Arthur Fils (Visitante)
Predicción 80.99%1.23momio equitativo
EV -2.00%
Ventaja -1.65%
Kelly -9.51%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.21
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
77.78%80.79%81.17%82.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.141.171.171.2187.72%85.28%85.47%82.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local): 19.01%; Arthur Fils (Visitante): 80.99%. Para Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.26. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.52, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.92%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.61%EV +4.92%E +0.891%K +1.09%G +0.053% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.39%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-31 14:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV +4.54%E +0.825%K +1.01%G +0.046% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-31 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +4.54%E +0.825%K +1.01%G +0.046% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.86%E -5.96%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93%EV +2.64%E +0.488%K +0.599%G +0.016% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.07%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-31 14:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93%EV +2.64%E +0.488%K +0.599%G +0.016% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.07%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-31 14:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +2.64%E +0.488%K +0.599%G +0.016% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.33I 18.76%NM 18.50%EV +1.31%E +0.245%K +0.302%G +0.004% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.50%EV -2.00%E -1.65%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 1.4% | 2026-08-31 13:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -0.215%E -0.041%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 14:28 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -0.215%E -0.041%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 14:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -1.17%E -0.224%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-31 13:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -1.17%E -0.224%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-31 13:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -1.17%E -0.224%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.86%E -5.96%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 13:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 13:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 14:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 14:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -3.07%E -0.601%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -4.02%E -0.795%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -4.02%E -0.795%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 10:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.24%E -4.48%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 13:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 13:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 14:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.86%E -5.96%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.86%E -5.96%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.67%E -6.73%K -54.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-31 11:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.97%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.67%E -6.73%K -54.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-31 13:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -6.87%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -8.77%E -1.83%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.72%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.72%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -10.67%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -11.62%E -2.50%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -3.62%E -3.04%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-31 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.38%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.62%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.38%EV -12.38%E -2.69%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.62%EV -4.43%E -3.75%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -12.57%E -2.73%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.05%E -5.21%K -37.80%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.47%E -3.22%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-29 18:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -15.42%E -3.47%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -20.17%E -4.80%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -2.81%E -2.34%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 11:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 5.71I 17.51%NM 17.37% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.63% | 0.8% | 2026-08-31 14:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 1.0% | 2026-08-31 15:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 1.4% | 2026-08-31 14:50 |