Language:English
Sebastian Gorzny v Raphael Collignon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Gorzny (Local)
Prediction 15.47%6.46fair odd
EV +3.64%
Edge +0.543%
Kelly +0.638%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 6.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.21%15.76%15.46%18.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.196.106.206.7019.27%16.39%16.13%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Raphael Collignon (Visit)
Prediction 84.53%1.18fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.939%
Kelly -6.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.60%84.24%84.54%85.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.121.121.1791.74%89.04%89.29%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Gorzny (Local): 15.47%; Raphael Collignon (Visit): 84.53%. For Sebastian Gorzny (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.46. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +3.64%E +0.543%K +0.638%G +0.023% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 16:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.52%EV +2.87%E +0.431%K +0.507%G +0.015% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.48%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.52%EV +2.87%E +0.431%K +0.507%G +0.015% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.48%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 18:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.75%EV +1.94%E +0.294%K +0.347%G +0.007% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.25%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.96%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-30 22:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.02%E -6.38%K -70.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-28 14:26 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.02%E -6.38%K -70.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 08:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -1.00%E -0.157%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-30 18:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -1.00%E -0.157%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 21:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 6.28I 15.92%NM 14.79%EV -2.86%E -0.455%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.21%EV -7.86%E -7.21%K -87.34%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 08:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 22:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -7.02%E -6.38%K -70.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 05:44 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.10%E -0.661%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 13:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.10%E -0.661%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.10%E -0.661%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -4.10%E -0.661%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -7.02%E -6.38%K -70.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 20:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 17:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 17:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 08:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 17:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 17:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 17:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -10.28%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -1.94%E -1.68%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-30 22:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -11.06%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -11.83%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -2.79%E -2.43%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%EV -14.15%E -2.55%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -2.79%E -2.43%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.79%E -2.43%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.79%E -2.43%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -16.47%E -3.05%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -16.47%E -3.05%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -16.47%E -3.05%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.40%EV -19.72%E -3.80%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -1.10%E -0.939%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.13% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 15:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.11% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| Novig◎ | 6.90I 14.49%NM 14.18% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.82% | 2.2% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.54% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.46% | 2.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |