Langue:Français
Sebastian Gorzny v Raphael Collignon
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Sebastian Gorzny (Local)
Prévision 15.47%6.46cote équitable
EV +3.64%
Avantage +0.543%
Kelly +0.638%
Croissance +0.023%
avec la cote maximale 6.70
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.21%15.76%15.46%18.40%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
5.196.106.206.7019.27%16.39%16.13%14.93%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Raphael Collignon (Visiteur)
Prévision 84.53%1.18cote équitable
EV -1.10%
Avantage -0.939%
Kelly -6.46%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.17
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
81.60%84.24%84.54%85.79%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.091.121.121.1791.74%89.04%89.29%85.47%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Sebastian Gorzny (Local) : 15.47% ; Raphael Collignon (Visiteur) : 84.53%. Pour Sebastian Gorzny (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 6.46. 11 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 6.70, soit une espérance positive de +3.64%.
Cotes des opérateurs (61 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +3.64%E +0.543%K +0.638%G +0.023% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 16:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.52%EV +2.87%E +0.431%K +0.507%G +0.015% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.48%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.52%EV +2.87%E +0.431%K +0.507%G +0.015% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.48%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 18:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.75%EV +1.94%E +0.294%K +0.347%G +0.007% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.25%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.96%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-30 22:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 11:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.02%E -6.38%K -70.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-28 14:26 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.545%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.02%E -6.38%K -70.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 08:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV -1.00%E -0.157%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-30 18:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -1.00%E -0.157%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 21:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 6.28I 15.92%NM 14.79%EV -2.86%E -0.455%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.21%EV -7.86%E -7.21%K -87.34%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 08:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 22:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 21:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -3.32%E -0.532%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -7.02%E -6.38%K -70.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 05:44 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.10%E -0.661%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 13:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.10%E -0.661%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.10%E -0.661%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -4.10%E -0.661%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -7.02%E -6.38%K -70.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 20:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 17:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 17:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 20:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 08:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 17:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 17:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 17:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 13:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.17%E -5.56%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -10.28%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -1.94%E -1.68%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-30 22:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -11.06%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -11.83%E -2.08%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -2.79%E -2.43%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%EV -14.15%E -2.55%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -2.79%E -2.43%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.79%E -2.43%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.79%E -2.43%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -14.92%E -2.71%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.32%E -4.75%K -44.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -16.47%E -3.05%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -16.47%E -3.05%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -3.63%E -3.19%K -25.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -16.47%E -3.05%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -4.48%E -3.96%K -34.46%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.40%EV -19.72%E -3.80%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -1.10%E -0.939%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (8)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.13% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 15:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.11% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.89% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-30 22:00 |
| Novig◎ | 6.90I 14.49%NM 14.18% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.82% | 2.2% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.54% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.46% | 2.6% | 2026-08-30 22:05 |