Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lloyd Harris v Stefanos Tsitsipas

2026-09-02 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lloyd Harris (Local)

Prediction 28.54%3.50fair odd
EV +2.74%
Edge +0.760%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%28.79%28.42%33.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.273.303.6035.09%30.56%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)

Prediction 71.46%1.40fair odd
EV +1.48%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +3.51%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.74%71.21%71.58%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.321.4280.00%75.33%75.76%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lloyd Harris (Local): 28.54%; Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit): 71.46%. For Lloyd Harris (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.60, producing a positive expected value of +2.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -18.67%E -6.55%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV +1.48%E +1.04%K +3.51%G +0.052%5.5%2026-09-01 03:50
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -18.67%E -6.55%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV +1.48%E +1.04%K +3.51%G +0.052%5.5%2026-09-01 03:50
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -17.24%E -5.94%K -9.07%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV +0.047%E +0.033%K +0.117%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -18.10%E -6.31%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV +0.047%E +0.033%K +0.117%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 03:49
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -18.10%E -6.31%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV +0.047%E +0.033%K +0.117%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 03:49
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -1.38%E -1.00%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 00:20
betano_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.81%E -2.07%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 04:00
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.39%E -4.80%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.81%E -2.07%K -7.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 00:20
1xBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.85%EV -4.97%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.15%EV -3.53%E -2.61%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-01 04:05
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -0.117%E -0.033%K -0.047%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -4.24%E -3.16%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-01 04:25
DraftKings🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.45%EV -8.39%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.55%EV -4.24%E -3.16%K -12.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 03:58
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-01 03:55
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 20:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-31 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 28.85%EV -6.40%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.15%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 03:50
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 00:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 03:55
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 00:25
Fliff🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -10.10%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 04:05
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -4.96%E -3.73%K -15.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 00:20
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Bally Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
betPARX🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 03:55
TAB🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.68%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.67%E -4.30%K -17.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 00:24
GTbets🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -1.26%E -0.364%K -0.511%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -6.38%E -4.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 20:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -6.38%E -4.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 20:45
Fanatics🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -4.40%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -6.38%E -4.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 03:55
MyBookie.ag🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.17%EV -4.68%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.83%EV -6.38%E -4.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 04:00
theScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.38%E -4.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 03:55
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +2.74%E +0.760%K +1.05%G +0.029%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.10%E -5.46%K -23.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 04:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.97%E -0.874%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.10%E -5.46%K -23.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 20:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.10%E -5.46%K -23.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 03:55
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.10%E -5.46%K -23.67%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +2.74%E +0.760%K +1.05%G +0.029%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.81%E -6.06%K -26.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 03:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -7.81%E -6.06%K -26.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-31 20:00
ReBet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.25%EV -10.96%E -3.51%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.75%EV -7.81%E -6.06%K -26.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-01 03:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.78%EV -8.53%E -6.66%K -30.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-01 03:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.78%EV -8.53%E -6.66%K -30.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-01 03:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.68%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.91%EV -10.67%E -8.54%K -42.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 03:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 28.02%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.98%-0.0%2026-09-01 04:00
Novig3.39I 29.50%NM 29.08%1.39I 71.94%NM 70.92%1.4%2026-09-01 03:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%5.4%2026-09-01 04:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%5.4%2026-09-01 04:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%5.4%2026-09-01 04:30
Matchbook2.96I 33.78%NM 31.64%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.36%6.8%2026-09-01 04:30
ProphetX2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%8.0%2026-09-01 02:15
Smarkets2.86I 34.97%NM 30.24%1.24I 80.65%NM 69.76%15.6%2026-09-01 04:30
Arbitrage (48 combinations) +1.83%Winamax (DE) 3.60 (28.3%) / Ladbrokes (AU) 1.42 (71.7%)Show all 48 combinations
Lloyd Harris (Local)Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)Margin
BoyleSports🎯 3.60 (28.3%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (71.7%)+1.83%
BoyleSports🎯 3.60 (28.3%)Neds🎯 1.42 (71.7%)+1.83%
Winamax (DE)🎯 3.60 (28.3%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (71.7%)+1.83%
Winamax (DE)🎯 3.60 (28.3%)Neds🎯 1.42 (71.7%)+1.83%
Coolbet🎯 3.50 (28.9%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (71.1%)+1.02%
Coolbet🎯 3.50 (28.9%)Neds🎯 1.42 (71.1%)+1.02%
BoyleSports🎯 3.60 (28.0%)BetMGM🎯 1.40 (72.0%)+0.800%
BoyleSports🎯 3.60 (28.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 1.40 (72.0%)+0.800%
BoyleSports🎯 3.60 (28.0%)Coral🎯 1.40 (72.0%)+0.800%
Winamax (DE)🎯 3.60 (28.0%)BetMGM🎯 1.40 (72.0%)+0.800%
Winamax (DE)🎯 3.60 (28.0%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 1.40 (72.0%)+0.800%
Winamax (DE)🎯 3.60 (28.0%)Coral🎯 1.40 (72.0%)+0.800%
GTbets🎯 3.46 (29.1%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.9%)+0.680%
GTbets🎯 3.46 (29.1%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.9%)+0.680%
Bovada🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Bovada🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
BetRivers🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
BetRivers🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Virgin Bet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Virgin Bet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Unibet (SE)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Unibet (SE)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
LiveScore Bet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
LiveScore Bet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
TABtouch🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
TABtouch🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Grosvenor🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Grosvenor🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Casumo🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Casumo🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Unibet (NL)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Unibet (NL)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Unibet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Unibet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Bally Bet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Bally Bet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
betPARX🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
betPARX🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
ATG (SE)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
ATG (SE)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Svenska Spel🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Svenska Spel🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Hard Rock Bet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Hard Rock Bet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%
Tipico (DE)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)Neds🎯 1.42 (70.5%)+0.166%