Language:English
Jaime Faria v Carlos Alcaraz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jaime Faria (Local)
Prediction 9.84%10.17fair odd
EV +15.56%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.225%
assuming max odds 11.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.27%9.92%9.67%12.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.249.1011.7513.33%10.83%10.99%8.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlos Alcaraz (Visit)
Prediction 90.16%1.11fair odd
EV +0.083%
Edge +0.075%
Kelly +0.753%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.72%90.08%90.33%91.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.1197.09%94.22%94.34%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jaime Faria (Local): 9.84%; Carlos Alcaraz (Visit): 90.16%. For Jaime Faria (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.17. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 11.75I 8.51%NM 8.27%EV +15.56%E +1.32%K +1.45%G +0.225% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.73%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.40I 8.77%NM 8.36%EV +12.12%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.141% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.64%EV -6.23%E -5.99%K -155.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +8.19%E +0.744%K +0.819%G +0.067% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +8.19%E +0.744%K +0.819%G +0.067% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +8.19%E +0.744%K +0.819%G +0.067% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +8.19%E +0.744%K +0.819%G +0.067% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.13%E -6.92%K -237.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 23:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV +3.27%E +0.312%K +0.344%G +0.011% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.75%EV -3.52%E -3.29%K -50.34%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +3.27%E +0.312%K +0.344%G +0.011% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 00:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +3.27%E +0.312%K +0.344%G +0.011% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 00:14 |
| ReBet🎯 | 10.30I 9.71%NM 9.33%EV +1.30%E +0.127%K +0.140%G +0.002% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.67%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.29%EV +0.812%E +0.079%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.71%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 20:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 23:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 20:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 20:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.67%EV -2.63%E -0.266%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.33%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-02 20:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.67%EV -2.63%E -0.266%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.33%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.67%EV -2.63%E -0.266%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.33%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -4.11%E -0.421%K -0.469%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -6.23%E -5.99%K -155.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.85%EV -4.60%E -0.474%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.15%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 00:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 9.64I 10.37%NM 10.33%EV -5.19%E -0.538%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.67%EV +0.083%E +0.075%K +0.753%G +0.001% | 0.5% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -6.56%E -0.691%K -0.772%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -6.56%E -0.691%K -0.772%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -6.56%E -0.691%K -0.772%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -9.02%E -0.975%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -9.02%E -0.975%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.89%EV -6.23%E -5.99%K -155.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 00:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 9.17I 10.91%NM 10.36%EV -9.81%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.64%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.43%EV -10.50%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.57%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.34%EV -10.50%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.66%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 23:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.23%E -5.99%K -155.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 8.95I 11.17%NM 10.59%EV -11.97%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.41%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.64I 11.57%NM 10.84%EV -15.02%E -1.74%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.16%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.64I 11.57%NM 10.84%EV -15.02%E -1.74%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.16%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 00:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -16.40%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -16.40%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -18.86%E -2.29%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -3.52%E -3.29%K -50.34%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 00:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-02 23:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -26.24%E -3.50%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 00:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 00:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.93% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.07% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 23:26 |
| Matchbook◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 23:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.12% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.88% | 2.7% | 2026-09-03 00:15 |