Langue:Français
Jaime Faria v Carlos Alcaraz
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Jaime Faria (Local)
Prévision 9.84%10.17cote équitable
EV +15.56%
Avantage +1.32%
Kelly +1.45%
Croissance +0.225%
avec la cote maximale 11.75
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
8.27%9.92%9.67%12.28%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
7.509.249.1011.7513.33%10.83%10.99%8.51%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Carlos Alcaraz (Visiteur)
Prévision 90.16%1.11cote équitable
EV +0.083%
Avantage +0.075%
Kelly +0.753%
Croissance +0.001%
avec la cote maximale 1.11
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
87.72%90.08%90.33%91.73%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.031.061.061.1197.09%94.22%94.34%90.09%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Jaime Faria (Local) : 9.84% ; Carlos Alcaraz (Visiteur) : 90.16%. Pour Jaime Faria (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 10.17. 11 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 11.75, soit une espérance positive de +15.56%.
Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 11.75I 8.51%NM 8.27%EV +15.56%E +1.32%K +1.45%G +0.225% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.73%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.40I 8.77%NM 8.36%EV +12.12%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.141% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.64%EV -6.23%E -5.99%K -155.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +8.19%E +0.744%K +0.819%G +0.067% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +8.19%E +0.744%K +0.819%G +0.067% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +8.19%E +0.744%K +0.819%G +0.067% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +8.19%E +0.744%K +0.819%G +0.067% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.13%E -6.92%K -237.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 23:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV +3.27%E +0.312%K +0.344%G +0.011% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.75%EV -3.52%E -3.29%K -50.34%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +3.27%E +0.312%K +0.344%G +0.011% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 00:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +3.27%E +0.312%K +0.344%G +0.011% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 00:14 |
| ReBet🎯 | 10.30I 9.71%NM 9.33%EV +1.30%E +0.127%K +0.140%G +0.002% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.67%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.29%EV +0.812%E +0.079%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.71%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-02 20:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 23:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 20:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 20:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -1.65%E -0.165%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.67%EV -2.63%E -0.266%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.33%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-02 20:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.67%EV -2.63%E -0.266%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.33%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.67%EV -2.63%E -0.266%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.33%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -4.11%E -0.421%K -0.469%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -6.23%E -5.99%K -155.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.85%EV -4.60%E -0.474%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.15%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 00:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 9.64I 10.37%NM 10.33%EV -5.19%E -0.538%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.67%EV +0.083%E +0.075%K +0.753%G +0.001% | 0.5% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -6.56%E -0.691%K -0.772%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -6.56%E -0.691%K -0.772%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -6.56%E -0.691%K -0.772%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -9.02%E -0.975%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -9.02%E -0.975%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.89%EV -6.23%E -5.99%K -155.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 00:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 9.17I 10.91%NM 10.36%EV -9.81%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.64%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.43%EV -10.50%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.57%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.34%EV -10.50%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.66%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 23:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.48%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.23%E -5.99%K -155.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 00:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 8.95I 11.17%NM 10.59%EV -11.97%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.41%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.64I 11.57%NM 10.84%EV -15.02%E -1.74%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.16%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.64I 11.57%NM 10.84%EV -15.02%E -1.74%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.16%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 00:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -16.40%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -16.40%E -1.93%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 00:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -18.86%E -2.29%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -3.52%E -3.29%K -50.34%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 00:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:06 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.62%E -2.43%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 00:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -21.32%E -2.66%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.43%E -4.17%K -73.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-02 23:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -26.24%E -3.50%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -5.33%E -5.07%K -106.54%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 00:05 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (8)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 00:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 00:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.93% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.07% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 17:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 23:26 |
| Matchbook◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 23:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.12% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.88% | 2.7% | 2026-09-03 00:15 |