Language:English
Grigor Dimitrov v Alexei Popyrin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grigor Dimitrov (Local)
Prediction 63.80%1.57fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.85%63.86%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.491.5371.43%67.77%67.11%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexei Popyrin (Visit)
Prediction 36.20%2.76fair odd
EV +3.89%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +2.08%
Growth +0.081%
assuming max odds 2.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%36.15%36.14%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.652.8740.00%37.25%37.74%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grigor Dimitrov (Local): 63.80%; Alexei Popyrin (Visit): 36.20%. For Alexei Popyrin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.68%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 34.32%EV +3.89%E +1.36%K +2.08%G +0.081% | 1.5% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -8.77%E -6.13%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV +3.17%E +1.11%K +1.71%G +0.054% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -10.68%E -7.63%K -26.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +1.36%E +0.486%K +0.755%G +0.010% | 7.1% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -0.450%E -0.164%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -0.812%E -0.296%K -0.467%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.31%EV -7.49%E -5.17%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.69%EV -1.17%E -0.430%K -0.679%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%EV -3.66%E -2.43%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -1.54%E -0.565%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-31 21:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%EV -3.66%E -2.43%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -1.54%E -0.565%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-31 21:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -3.02%E -1.99%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -2.26%E -0.837%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-31 21:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.26%E -0.837%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-30 19:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.26%E -0.837%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-31 21:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -2.98%E -1.11%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-31 19:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -2.98%E -1.11%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-31 16:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -3.35%E -1.25%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-31 22:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -3.71%E -1.39%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 16:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.66%E -2.43%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-31 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-31 13:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-30 19:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-31 21:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.07%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -4.43%E -1.68%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 19:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.79%E -1.82%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 16:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.16%E -1.97%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.13%E -5.64%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.16%E -1.97%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-31 17:01 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.97%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.03%EV -5.52%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-31 02:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.97%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.03%EV -5.52%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-31 02:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 20:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 08:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 18:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.58%E -3.77%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 18:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-30 19:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.21%E -4.23%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 21:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.49%E -5.17%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.94%E -3.31%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.52%EV -6.24%E -2.41%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 23:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 21:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 18:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 18:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.39%E -1.56%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 20:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-31 23:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.30%E -2.87%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 11:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.37% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.63% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.37% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.63% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.37% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.63% | 0.2% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 0.6% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.50% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.50% | 1.3% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.02% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.98% | 1.4% | 2026-08-31 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35% | 1.8% | 2026-08-31 21:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.49% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.51% | 2.0% | 2026-08-31 23:05 |